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000
FXUS63 KGRR 062028
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

LATEST UPDATE...
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

THE COLDEST EARLY DECEMBER TEMPERATURES SINCE 2005 ARE EXPECTED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR
AND WEST OF US-131 THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EXPECT A GENERAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WEST OF US-131.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

OUR FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OUR NEXT ISSUE IS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT IS OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH.

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WHICH HAS ALREADY
GIVEN MUSKEGON AN INCH OF SNOW (18Z OBS). A PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE MODELS FOR THIS
LAKE EFFECT EVENT... MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW NOT MUCH MORE THAN
5000 FT BUT AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO COME IN THIS EVENING
THE DGZ ACTIVATES (HELPED BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE (PV
ANOMALY). THE CIPS ANALOGS SHOW 4 TO 5 INCHES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SO SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATING AND THE LAKE
EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT... SEEMS GOOD TO HAVE HIGH
POPS AND AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCH
TOMORROW. IF THE CIPS ARE CORRECT... WE COULD SEE EVEN MORE. ALL
OF THIS SHOULD SLOWLY END SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SW CONUS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT
ON THE MODELS AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN IS UNDER THE POLAR JET
SO WITH WILL BE ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT. THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THIS IS LIMITED... ONLY 3 G/KG NEAR 700 MB... SO SNOWFALL WILL BE
LIMITED BUT I SEE NO REASON WHY WE SHOULD NOT GET 1 TO 3 INCHES
FROM IT. AS A RESULT I INCREASED POPS TO 80 PCT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE A DRY SLOT BUT IT SEEMS NOW THAT WILL BE
OVER OUR SE CWA. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO PUT SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA AT LEAST PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN MONDAY MORNING...BUT THEN
THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWS ON IT/S HEELS INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE
ARCTIC AIR PUSHING IN MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN THE
MORNING...WITH FALLING TEMPS INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THIS ARCTIC AIR
SHOULD PRODUCE THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5K FT.  WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE LES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOWN...BUT THEN IT SHOULD KICK
UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES PASSING THROUGH.  THE LAKE EFFECT APPEARS TO DIMINISH FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT LONG TERM STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR
ITSELF.  WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE COLDEST EARLY DEC PERIOD
SINCE 2000...AND THIS STILL LOOKS VERY LIKELY.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY WITH H8 TEMPS OF -20 TO -21C.  THIS SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  WIND CHILL
READINGS SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO AT TIMES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS TYPE OF ARCTIC AIR ONLY PENETRATES
INTO OUR AREA IN EARLY DEC ABOUT ONCE EVERY 20 YEARS...SIGNIFICANT
FOR SURE.

WE SHOULD HAVE A MODERATION OF TEMPS INTO THU/FRI...BUT THE MODELS
DISAGREE TO WHAT EXTENT THE WARM AIR REACHES LOWER MI.  HAVE 20S
THU...AND LOW TO MID 30S FOR FRI...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND TWEAK ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE BULK OF THE MVFR WILL BE DOWN WIND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH NW OR WNW FLOW. THE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST PERSISTENT
AT AZO...WITH VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF SITES.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF THE LAKE. MOST
VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE MVFR RANGE...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING VSBYS DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE. ONCE
AGAIN...WITH THE NW FLOW...AZO SHOULD SEE MORE FREQUENT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.  THE HIGHEST IMPACT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR FROM ROUGHLY 04Z TO 14Z SATURDAY WHEN THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS REALIZED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE OUR FORECAST OR HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL KEEP WAVES IN THE 4 TO 7
FOOT RANGE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY
ALLOWING WAVE HEIGHTS TO ALSO DIMINISH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ICE JAM THREAT AS THE COLD WEATHER
PERSISTS. THE GENERAL SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY
FACILITATE ICE FORMATION ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM