Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 230401

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1201 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017


Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

We have one more dry day before we go through a period of showers
that will linger into next week. Several low pressure systems
through next Wednesday, each bringing the chance of rain.

Friday will be the warmest day with highs in the 50s north of M-46
and 60s south of there. Otherwise highs will be mostly in the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Forecast concerns deal with pcpn potential Thursday night through
Friday night.

Another chilly night is expected as high pressure settles over the
state. Temps will fall into the teens again in most locations; a bit
higher near the lake.

Clouds will be on the increase Thursday ahead of a low moving toward
the Great Lakes from the southern Plains. The low will be attached
to a frontal boundary sinking south from Canada. We should see some
light rain develop late Thursday night with much of the pcpn
retreating to the northern cwa Friday as south flow increases. It`s
possible we could see a brief period of light freezing rain Thursday
night in the far northern cwa, but this is far from certain. There
isn`t a decent feed of colder air from the north that we typically
need for a significant icing event.

Showers will be most numerous along the US-10 corridor Friday where
the frontal boundary will be. South of that boundary, it will feel
like Spring with highs in the 60s.

There is some elevated instability present early Friday morning and
so a thunderstorm can`t be ruled out, but confidence isn`t high
enough yet to include in the grids.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Low pressure over Missouri Saturday will cross Michigan Sunday. That
will lead to a fairly wet period with numerous showers and perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm. Yet another wave trailing the Sunday
system will move toward northern Indiana Monday night. More showers
are possible Monday night/Tuesday. Mainly dry weather is expected
from late Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure builds back
into the state.

Highs during the period will be in the lower to mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1157 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Vfr conditions will continue overnight through Thursday afternoon.
Southeast winds will increase to 10 to 20 kts Thursday. Rain
showers will gradually develop during the mid to late evening
hours Thursday at all the terminals. Conditions late in the
evening will gradually deteriorate to mvfr as the low clouds and
showers move in.


Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The pressure gradient will begin to increase late Thursday and winds
will respond as well. Conditions will remain below advisory criteria
through Thursday, but a small craft advisory may be needed Thursday


Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

An active weather pattern starting Thursday night and potentially
lasting through next week will provide multiple episodes of at least
light rain, and occasional periods of heavier rain. Thursday night
through Sunday, rainfall totals between 0.75 and 1.5 inches will
likely fall over the area, with the higher-end amounts currently
favored north toward the upper Muskegon river basin. River levels
will likely rise as a result. Some rivers may eventually climb back
to bankfull next week.




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