Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 171918
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSED SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN EARLIER.  THIS COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.  DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AND THE RAIN WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT.  LOWS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...KILLING ANY REMAINING TENDER
VEGETATION.  AFTER A MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BUT SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY
SHOWERS ALONG IT ARE RATHER SCATTERED AND LIGHT.  HOWEVER WITH H8
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0C LATER TONIGHT...LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.  THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR IN THE PROFILE UNTIL ALMOST DAYBREAK SATURDAY...SO THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT UNTIL THEN.  LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...BUT STILL HAVE SOME AREAS UNDER CATEGORICAL
POPS.

THE LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOULD PEAK AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS
THE SHEAR RELAXES AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE LAKE.
HOWEVER THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW BY THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE 340-350
KEEPING MOST OF THE PCPN HUGGING THE SHORE LINE.  HOWEVER...MORE
IMPORTANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...IS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT
COMES THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.  THE SHOWERS SHOULD END AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN WILL END NORTH OF I-96 BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A HIGH CHANCE WE WILL SEE TEMPS DIP TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE LAKE.  FROST AND
FREEZING HEADLINES STILL LOOK LIKELY.

A MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY WITH SUNSHINE.  RAISED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.  THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING SOME RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FAIR WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST FLOW WITH MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE HELD INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IS UPPER 50S. WE WILL SEE LOWS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...NORMAL
LOWS ARE AROUND 40.

HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
CLEAR FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MVFR CONDITIONS BY
EVENING AS STRATUS CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM LAN TO JXN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BUT THIS WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS
PROBABILITY IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT.  IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL SOUTH OF WHITEHALL...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE FOR NOW.  THE GALES RUNS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.  RIVERS ARE HIGH BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH.  THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING RAINS ALSO LOOK LIGHT...
MAINLY UNDER AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK









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