Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 221925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
325 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The region will see rather quiet weather over the next few days.  A
few light rain showers may occur over Central Lower Sunday afternoon
and evening, otherwise it will remain dry through Monday night.
Sunday will be mild with highs of 60 to 65, but it will be a bit
cooler Monday with highs in the 50s.

The next good chance of rain appears to hold off until Wednesday and
Thursday.  This system will likely have brisk winds too.  Another
chance of rain moves in about Friday night. Much of next week should
see daytime highs in the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Little change in the overall pattern through the short term, with
the outside chance of a few showers Sunday afternoon and evening.
Otherwise it looks to be quiet and seasonably cool.

Northwest upper flow will continue across the Great Lakes through
Monday night.  Within this flow we will see a short wave come
through Sunday evening.  This feature will bring a weak cold front
and surface low pressure through Sunday afternoon.  The system will
lack solid moisture this far south, with the best moisture crossing
the U.P. and Northern Lower.  So will maintain low POPs for the NE
half of the CWA Sunday afternoon with the front, and into the
evening until the short wave passes.

Otherwise an uneventful period tonight through Monday night.  Temps
will be slightly above normal Sunday, then slightly below normal
Monday behind the front.  North winds behind the front will be
fairly brisk Sunday night into Monday morning, but this will mainly
impact the lake shore areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Confidence continues to grow on a stronger storm system to track
eastward through the CWA Tuesday night through Thursday. I increased
POPS and winds for this event.  Will need to monitor the potential
for wind impacts.

This system will be deepening as it tracks through. It takes on a
negative tilt in the upper levels over the Great Lakes Region...thus
plenty of dynamics for stronger storm.  Warm air advection out ahead
of the system spreads some rain in for Tuesday night. After looking
at forecast does now look like the precipitation will
not move into Clare county during the night. Currently the lows
there are forecasted to be around freezing Tuesday night. Increasing
wind and rain are expected during the day on Wednesday as a warm
front arrives.  Then a wet and windy night is expected for Wednesday
night as the strengthening storm moves through.

Strong cold air advection arrives Thursday as the storm pulls away.
This is expected to create some lake enhanced precipitation. Its a
close call for some snow to mix in up toward Big Rapids and Tustin.
Gusty winds will also occur.

Another storm approaches for will go with showers. The
High Res Euro was showing some instability.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR weather to prevail into Sunday. Mixing this afternoon may
result in some gusts up around 20 kt for KLAN and KJXN...but the
mixing decreases this evening and so will the winds. Then on
Sunday clouds will spread in from the northwest...but the bases
will be quite high...over 10k ft.

If radiational cooling tonight ends up being stronger than
expected...patchy fog may develop.


Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Still expecting relatively quiet conditions tonight and Sunday with
wind speeds 15 knots or less.  However winds and waves will ramp up
Sunday night and continue into Monday morning when we may need a
small craft advisory.  It appears calmer conditions return into
Monday afternoon and night as high pressure builds in.


Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Streamflow is currently above normal for this time of year at several
gauges across the Grand and Kalamazoo River basins. However, river
levels are either falling or steady. There are currently no
significant hydro concerns, with quiet weather through early next

Widespread rain looks increasingly likely during the Wednesday-
Thursday time frame, with over 0.50 inches possible. Confidence in
rainfall amounts remains low at this time. In general, river rises
are possible late next week into next weekend.




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