Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 212338
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
738 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be ending this evening, as a
storm system departs the area. Skies should clear tonight allowing
temperatures to fall into the upper 40s over northern areas and to
the mid 50s for the rest of the area. It will be mostly clear Monday
into Tuesday with a slow warming trend. The next frontal system will
bring showers and thunderstorms back to the area later Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

No issues in the short term after the convection ends this evening.
Temperatures will be a little below normal tonight and Monday. High
pressure will move across the region Monday and Tuesday bringing
mostly clear skies and temperatures slowly warming to near to
above normal levels by mid week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Medium range models continue to support a cold front crossing the
region Thursday.  The upper wave appears to shear out, so the
potential for severe weather looks low, but the chance of showers and
a few storms look good.  Peak chances will move into SW MI Wednesday
night ahead of the front, with lessening chances into Thursday as
the front passes.  It this point, it appears the front comes through
Thursday morning.

A pleasant period is expected from Thursday night through Saturday,
with high pressure in control. The next chance of rain comes in
Saturday night at the soonest.  The models are not in good agreement
with this as the GFS ensemble is the quickest bringing moisture in
from the southwest, while the operational GFS and the ECMWF are
slower.  We will monitor trends, but at this point will have POPs
starting Saturday night into Sunday, but next weekend could end up
dry.

As for temps, we will see warmer than normal temps Wed and Thu, but
then a cooler period behind the front for Friday and Saturday.  It
appears near normal temps arrive again by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Some brief MVFR cigs above 2000 ft AGL will be possible through
02Z as a final batch of rain showers over Lake Michigan at 2330Z
moves east across Lower Michigan. Any rain affecting the terminals
will be light and brief with little or no restrictions to visibility.
Otherwise, high confidence for VFR conditions through 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Going marine headlines are on track. Northwest winds of 15 gusting
to 25 kts decreasing significantly this evening. Small craft
advisory and hazardous beach conditions to continue through the
evening. Beach conditions look good through mid week. But strong
southwest winds Tuesday may disturb the lake.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Strong thunderstorms produced swaths of heavy rainfall that totaled
up to 1 to 2 inches on Saturday. The Vicksburg area in southern
Kalamazoo County received around 1 inch of rainfall, which has
resulted in additional rises on the Portage River near Vicksburg.
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Portage River near
Vicksburg through Wednesday morning.

Only light scattered showers are expected this afternoon and
evening. Dry weather with plenty of sunshine is expected Monday and
Tuesday. The next best chance for appreciable rainfall will be late
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM EDT Monday for MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...63
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...63



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