Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 240353
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1153 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE STORM THAT HAS BROUGHT SNOW TO EXTREME SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH. OTHERWISE A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT MAINTAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WE WILL SEE
RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME FREEZING RAIN
IS EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS BY MID MORNING EXPECT IT TO BE WINDY
AND WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. COLDER WEATHER
RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE
AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 SINCE MARCH 3RD. WE MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THAT PART OF THE EVENT. WE MAY ALSO NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY AS WINDS OF 55 KNOTS ARE WITHIN 3000 FT
OF THE GROUND.

OUR SYSTEM CAUSING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 HAS BROUGHT A
DUSTING OF SNOW TO THAT AREA BUT THE SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT AND
WILL BE GONE BY SUNSET.

OUR MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THAT SYSTEM. THE CENTER OF THE STORM
WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THAT
PUTS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STORM. NEARLY ALL
THE RAIN WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PHASE OF THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.9 INCHES...NEARLY 2 STD
ABOVE NORMAL. SO IT WILL RAIN FOR SURE BUT NOT FOR LONG. I EXPECT
THERE TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FREEZING RAIN TO BE
AN ISSUE NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS. WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THIS.

THE DRY SLOT ENDS THE RAIN BY MID MORNING AND IT WILL BE
WINDY...MAYBE ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT
THAT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

QUITE CHILLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR DECENT PRECIP ON SUNDAY.

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A 125 KT JET OVER LOWER MI THAT QUICKLY
SLIPS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE PARENT LOW FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SECONDARY TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
THROUGH LOWER MI...TURNING SURFACE WINDS NNW BY 00Z THURSDAY
EVENING. WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIPPING IN AND SOME
MOISTURE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW FURTHER NORTH...BUT
ANY PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH H850
TEMPS DROPPING TO -15 TO -20 C. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN COLD
AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES...SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS COULD BE REALIZED SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER
AREAS OF CENTRAL LOWER MI.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW DROP SE INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY WINDY DAY ALSO.
HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH EAST WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RAINFALL
EVENT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS UNDER A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. THIS MAY BRING THE RIVER LEVELS BACK UP... BUT
FLOODING IS NOT A HIGH PROBABILITY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63



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