Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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288
FXUS63 KGRR 111908
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
208 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TO BEST COORDINATE MESSAGING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL
MEDIA...WE WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.

HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND THERE IS ALREADY GOOD FORECAST CERTAINTY THAT VERY
SIMILAR RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED AND COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AT KMKG WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY AND
IS FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE
FORCE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS



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