Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 140304
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
904 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...

As expected, a lake effect snow band has developed and is pushing
south into the lakeshore counties this evening. Residence time is
generally short--an hour or less--which is mitigating snow
accumulations to just a half inch to inch. However, what does fall
will fall quickly, with rapid changes in visibility and perhaps
also road conditions possible. This band should push south over
the next few hours before moving south and east of the region by
midnight or so.

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory continues through tomorrow morning. North
winds are occasionally gusting to near gale force, though should
generally remain just below. Waves will remain rather high close
to shore, with 5 to 8 ft waves expected in the nearshore waters
through early morning, with a slow diminishing trend expected
after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 525 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017)

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

An area of snow is pushing south through the MKE and ENW
terminals at this hour. Reductions in visibility are expected as
it moves through. Later this evening, a narrow band of lake effect
snow may form and briefly impact MKE and perhaps ENW. Further
west at UES and MSN, light snow will be possible for a few more
hours, but minimal impact is expected.

Northwest winds will remain gusty this evening, with a few gusts
pushing 30KT at times. Winds will start to settle down later
tonight as the surface low pulls east of the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 141 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Moderate

Surface low is moving across southeast WI. It is providing
additional lift to create scattered snow showers with visibility
down to 1/2 to 1 mile in parts of eastern WI. Back edge of precip
is steadily approaching south-central WI. Expect accumulations of
a few tenth of an inch for most of southern WI. There is a lake
enhanced snow band impacting Manitowoc that has brought a few
inches of snow and very low visibility. As the surface low shifts
southeast, this band may move into the Sheboygan area, dropping
1-2 inches this afternoon. Then as winds turn more northeast this
evening there is potential for a quick moving lake effect band to
slide southward down the lakeshore counties bringing light
accumulations.

North winds winds will be gusty this evening behind the low. They
will wind down later tonight as the surface low pulls further
away. Clouds will become more scattered across the eastern area,
allowing temperatures to drop into the upper single digits where
there is clearing.

Thursday through Friday - Confidence...Medium
Mid level flow remains cyclonic with a decent shortwave riding
through Thursday night. Subsequent surface cyclogenesis takes
shape east of Lake Superior Thursday night into Friday. The
pattern suggests some snow showers or flurries from later Thursday
into possibly Friday morning.

Friday night through Saturday night - Confidence...Medium
Weak ridging briefly settles in Friday night though rather quickly
we see some 850 WAA/isentropic ascent take hold and this develops
a narrow area of some light snow associated with this forcing. A
surface low will be evolving across the central and southern
Plains. The better forcing pushes north Saturday night with model
qpf showing a push to the north as well.

Sunday through Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Will need to watch some energy riding northeast from the central
Plains. At this time it looks like the bulk of this will be
staying to our southeast but the ECMWF/GEM solutions account for
some of the blended POPS in the grids. Overall the GFS is real
quiet this period. The next feature would be a cold front swinging
through Tuesday which puts an end to some relatively milder
conditions that had set up Sunday and Monday.

MARINE...Small craft level winds and waves will continue through
Thursday morning. Winds will become north this evening.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ052.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Thursday Night through Wednesday...99



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