Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 130716
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
216 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

An upper trough will move across the Northern Mississippi Valley
with a 70 knot jet max ahead of the trough axis. Upper divergence
is weak. A weakening southwest 850 mb wind max pushes toward the
mississippi river toward sunrise monday.

Surface High pressure will be across the Great lakes.

Will see ground fog in low spots early this morning, with more
fog in the Wisconsin River Valley. Some high clouds will push
into the area, thickening by afternoon. Diurnal fair weather cumulus
should develop again as well by Sunday afternoon.

A southeast lake breeze will bring slightly cooler temperatures
near the lake.

A dying MCS may bring a few light showers into the far west toward
evening, but not expecting any measurable rain.

.LONG TERM...

Monday through Thursday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

The weather pattern is expected to turn more active this week,
with a series of low pressure troughs likely to move through the
region.

Models are in decent agreement with the first wave on Monday, with
a chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms.
Deeper moisture is then expected to begin to push into southern
Wisconsin on Tuesday, possibly bringing more storms to the
forecast area.

The peak moisture should arrive Wednesday, though the ECMWF is a
bit farther south with the low and thus moisture/instability might
not be quite a high as the GFS is suggesting. Either way though,
it looks like a wet day. GFS precipitable water values are up
around 2 inches, so could see some heavy rain.

Models show the low and associated surface front exiting the area
early Thursday morning. Could see a little precip lingering, but
overall it looks like a drier day.

Temperatures will be within a couple degrees of normal for the
first few days of the week.

Friday and Saturday...Forecast confidence is low to medium:

There is less certainty among models for Friday/Saturday, as the
ECMWF and Canadian solutions have a chance for showers/storms
Friday with a passing wave, while the GFS is dry under high
pressure. The GFS and ECMWF have another wave Saturday, while the
Canadian is dry.

Models do agree that temperatures should remain near normal into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

High pressure will slowly slide southeast across the area
overnight, then to the southeast Sunday into Sunday night. The
high will bring quiet weather to the area. May see light ground
fog in low lying areas overnight, with more fog in the Wisconsin
River Valley. Light winds are expected through the period. A
southeast lake breeze is expected by the middle to late morning
hours Sunday near Lake Michigan, lingering into the afternoon.

Mostly clear skies are generally expected overnight, with some
high clouds trying to move into western portions of the area.
More diurnal cumulus clouds expected by the afternoon hours on
Sunday. More middle to high clouds will also push into the area
during the afternoon and especially Sunday night. Any
precipitation should remain northwest of the area Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and low waves are expected across the nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan today. A lake breeze will turn winds
southeast during the late morning and afternoon. High pressure
over the Great Lakes will continue to bring quiet weather during
this time with light south winds tonight.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Monday through Saturday...DDV



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