Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 220928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WEAK MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PRODUCING PATCHY --SN/--ZL OVER
SOUTH CWA OVERNIGHT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MRNG...ENDING LIGHT PRECIP. WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN
GTLAKES...EXTENDS WEST INTO CENTRAL MN.  ONE HOLE IN STRATUS VSBL
FROM 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY FROM KSBM AND KMTW EAST OVER SMALL PART
OF WEST CENTAL LAKE MI. HAS NOT SHOWN ANY TREND TOWARD EXPANDING
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST THRU THE DAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WI.  WOULD THINK THIS
WOULD CAUSE HOLE TO FILL BACK IN AS CLOUDS BEGIN SHIFTING EWD. DUE
TO LARGE STRATUS FIELD...WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WRT CLOUD COVER
THIS MRNG WITH SLOW CLEARING IN THE AFTN AND EVE.  NO REAL MECHANISM
TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IN ERN CWA DUE TO TERRAIN INDUCED WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
WL KEEP TMAX IN CHECK DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND KEEP MAXIMUMS 3 TO 6
DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS /EXCEPT KSBM/.

LOWEST TEMPS COULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF
MOST LOCATIONS LATER TNGT.  HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY TO AMOUNT OF
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP LOWS TNGT
A LITTLE WARMER WITH 925H TEMPS INITIALLY AROUND -8C.  IF MORE
CLEARING MATERIALIZES FOR THE EVE...THEN WL NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AT LEAST 5DEG.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN WI AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S BY FRI AFTERNOON ON
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EARLY
FRI EVENING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IF THE LOW LEVELS CAN SATURATE
BEFORE THE 500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ARRIVES THAT BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR
INTO THE MID LEVELS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF FRI
NIGHT. THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOUTHERN WI.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WEATHER WILL BE QUIET BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND BRING A SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS WI LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL CAN/T COME INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE SWATH OF
PRECIP WILL LAND AND THE QPF AMOUNTS... BUT THE TIMING AGREEMENT IS
LOOKING BETTER. I WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE MKX FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT AND THEN TAPER THE
POPS OFF DURING SUNDAY. THIS TIMING IS TRENDING A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO 12:1... HIGHEST IN NORTHERN
AREAS. WITH QPF UP TO 0.15 INCH... EXPECT 0.5 TO 2 INCH TOTAL
AMOUNTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN WI AGAIN
TUESDAY... WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE WED NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS DRIER FOR
SOUTHERN WI THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PLANNING ON HOLDING ONTO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AFTN...HOWEVER SOME
CONCERN THAT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WLY...WEAK SUBSIDENCE
COULD RESULT IN BINOVC AND LIFTING CIGS AT KMKE LATER THIS MRNG AND
AFTN.  FOR NOW WL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO
TNGT.  HOWEVER NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT LIGHT FLOW AND LACK OF SCOURING
COULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS CONTINUING INTO TNGT. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
WITH INCREASING SW WINDS LATE TNGT.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
HOWEVER WINDS STRENGTHEN ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS TO LIKELY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING LATER TNGT AND CONTINUING INTO FRI
EVE.  ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON INCREASING WINDS SO WL
POST SMALL CRAFT ADVY BEGINNING LATE TNGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



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