Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150140
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
840 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.UPDATE...

There is a moderate swim risk over the beaches of Sheboygan and
Ozaukee county on Friday. Breaking waves and currents are
expected. Stay away from areas like piers, breakwalls and river
outlets.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and waves will approach Small Craft Advisory levels Friday
afternoon into Saturday afternoon, especially north of North Point
Light house. Southeast winds are expected during most of this
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 825 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Quiet weather is expected into Friday. IFR Fog is expected in the
Wisconsin River Valley later tonight into early Friday morning.
Ground fog in low lying areas is possible as well, but will be
much less widespread than last night.  Light winds tonight will
become south again on Friday inland, and southeast near the lake.
There may be some high clouds moving through the area Friday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 230 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight And Friday...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Quiet weather is expected tonight into Friday, as a 500 mb ridge
axis shifts slowly to the east of the area. Fog is expected later
tonight into early Friday morning in the Wisconsin River Valley.
Ground fog in low lying areas is possible as well.

Lowered the lows for tonight a little from the blended consensus
short term models, with light winds and mostly clear skies
expected. Warm temperatures are expected to continue Friday, with
onshore winds keeping lakeshore areas cooler during the afternoon.

Saturday - Confidence...Medium
We will be in a warm southerly flow ahead of the mid level energy
and surface cold front approaching from the Plains. 925 temps are
proggd into the 21-24c range so highs well into the 80s expected.

Saturday night and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
This will be the period that sees a decent shot of shra/tsra. A
cold front is expected to move into the warm/humid airmass and
combine with a mid level shortwave to generate a decent shot at
precip. Several hundred J/KG worth of CAPE suggests keeping the
mention of thunder going.

Sunday night and Monday - Confidence...Medium
A cooler airmass with a surface high should dominate. 925 temps
will be down into the teens celsius.

Tuesday through Thursday - Confidence...Low
Model differences show up with the ECMWF building an upper ridge
across the western Great Lakes region. Meanwhile the GFS
transitions back to a more active southwest flow regime with
periods of shra/tsra. The ECMWF has some moisture influx leading
to some precip by Wednesday but overall showing a drier period
than the GFS. If anything the GEM tends to side with the more
active GFS. A mild southerly flow through the period with 925
temps aoa 20c.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...Quiet weather is expected into Friday.
Light south winds inland are expected into the early evening,
with southeast winds near Lake Michigan. Fog is expected in the
Wisconsin River Valley later tonight into early Friday morning.
Ground fog in low lying areas is possible as well. Light winds
tonight will become south again on Friday inland, and southeast
near the lake. There may be some high clouds moving through the
area Friday afternoon.

MARINE...There may be some light fog or low clouds lingering over
the waters until sunset. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected
tonight into Saturday.

Winds and waves will approach Small Craft Advisory levels Friday
afternoon into Saturday afternoon, especially north of Port
Washington. Southeast winds are expected during most of this
period.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Friday Night through Thursday...Collar



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