Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 051615
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1115 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.
MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MISSING SRN WI TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH TODAY SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIP FOR THE TAF SITES. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
COMPLEX WILL AFFECT SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE AND
THINNING EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL COME
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTERACT WITH THE WARM/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE SCT-NMRS TSRA.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO REDUCE POPS AND ELIMINATE ALL TOGETHER
FROM THE EAST. COMPLEX MOVING SE AWAY FROM SRN WI WITH PLENTY OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TOO.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

UPSTREAM -SHRA OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY PROGRESS INTO MORE STABLE AIR.  HENCE WILL CONTINUE DRY
CONDITIONS OVER WRN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG.  HOWEVER SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON INCREASING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH
TODAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.  IMPRESSIVE 850-700MB LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION
SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TODAY.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
SRN WI THIS MRNG...A FEW -SHRA MAY REDEVELOP OVER WRN CWA LATER THIS
MRNG.  OTRW...BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS EWD
ACROSS SRN WI.  NAM AND ECMWF PIVOT NOSE OF LLJ RIGHT ACROSS SRN WI.
HOWEVER COMPLICATIONS ADDED FROM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX THAT
WILL HAVE BEEN GENERATED FROM ONGOING ERN NE CONVECTION.  ECMWF
CARRIES THIS FEATURE E-SE ACROSS NRN IL...WHICH WOULD HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON SRN WI LATER TODAY.  NAM AND GFS FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS FEATURE.  FOR NOW WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS IN SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVENING AND THEN START TO TRIM BACK LATER TONIGHT.  A
FEW OF THESE T-STORMS COULD TAKE ON A WEAK ROTATION AND PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AS LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
AND ELEVATED CAPE INCREASES ABOVE 500 J/KG.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS SUGGESTING DRY WEATHER THEN FROM MID-
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAMPED POPS UP FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH.
MODELS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 1.75 INCHES. WITH DECENT FRONT
TIMING EXPECTED...STILL SEEMS LIKE SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
NEW SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A BIT LESS OF A SEVERE CHANCE MONDAY DUE THE
LATER TIMING AND LESS INSTABILITY...THOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KNOTS WILL PROBABLY KEEP THINGS INTERESTING.

TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH
925 MB TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 22-24C RANGE. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN
EACH DAY...WENT MID 80S MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH. STILL LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR SOME CHANCE POPS THOUGH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

INCREASING WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY KICK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION AND BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  OTRW...CIGS WILL BE LOWERING TO LOWER VFR LEVELS TONIGHT.

MARINE...

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
AND SFC CDFNT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS GRADIENT WILL PREVENT THE LAKE BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH
PROGRESS INLAND TODAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SLY.  DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY...GUSTS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SFC CDFNT WL PASS THROUGH SUN NGT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

BEACHES...

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
FROM PORT WASHINGTON SOUTH TO KENOSHA TODAY. THE SOUTH WINDS AND
LAKESHORE ORIENTATION WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
RESULTANT HIGHER WAVES NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN
/LMZ643/ LATER TODAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
SWIM RISK AT KOHLER ANDRAE STATE PARK THIS AFTN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV



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