Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMKX 130328
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
928 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014

.UPDATE...

REMOVED PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT...LESS THAN 2K
FEET...AND ONLY WEAK FORCING EXPECTED DUE TO ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION. WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MIXING...EXPECT A MIX OF
STRATUS AND FOG. FOG COULD BECOME DENSE IN THOSE SOUTHWEST
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS FROM KEFT TO KMRJ AS THIS AREA CLOSER TO SFC
RIDGE AXIS.

WATCHING IA CLEARING LINE PROCEED STEADILY NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ABOUT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI. THIS
CLEARING LIKELY TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST CWA AND PERHAPS
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN CWA. HOWEVER DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT GOING
ANYWHERE AND WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF STRATUS TO REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD THIS CLEARING MOVE EAST ACROSS
SRN WI. HENCE FOR NOW...WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC REGARDING
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND FOG.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STRATUS FARTHER WEST OVER FAR WRN IA AND
NRN MO SPREADS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST MEETING UP WITH STRATUS FIELD
OVER WI/MN/IL.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...WL CONTINUE WITH IFR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS THRU THE NIGHT. CLEARING AREA TO THE WEST MAY EVENTUALLY
AFFECT KMSN/KENW BUT WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN POSITION
THROUGH SATURDAY...JUST DRIFTING A BIT SOUTHEAST. WITH INCREASING
TEMPS ALOFT...LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
THE LOWER 1-2 KFT SATURATED. CLOUDY SKIES ARE THUS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES
PROBABLY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME
DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH THE SATURATED LAYER
GENERALLY STAYING IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE NO GREATER THAN 0.40 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO...THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO DRIZZLE SHOULD STAY
LIGHT...WITH NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED.

THINK THE CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING. TEMPS THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A LITTLE LATER IN THE NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD THE MILDER MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

MODELS TOMORROW SEEM TO BE IN TWO CAMPS FOR TEMPS...ONE THAT IT IS
UNDERCUTTING TEMPS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...AND THE OTHER WHICH
SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING TEMPS DUE TO LACK OF CLOUD COVER. SEEING
SOMETHING SIMILAR TODAY...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS
FOR TOMORROW. SHOULD CRACK 40 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS MONTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND OKLAHOMA AREA. 925/850/700 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM...WITH SOME COOLING LATER AT 700 MB SUNDAY. 700 MB LEVEL IS
DRY. 850 MB RH INCREASES BUT DOES NOT SATURATE. THE 925 MB LAYER
SATURATES AS THE INVERSION SLOWLY RISES SUNDAY AND THE LOWER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE TO 875 MB. WILL LIKELY SEE DRIZZLE AND
FOG LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS LIFT WILL BE WEAK IN THE
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO
OF PRECIPITATION.

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER THE STRATUS
WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MILD...WHEN
HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EASTERN U.S. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE SHORTWAVE INTO MISSOURI...WHILE
THE 12Z NAM IS NOW SLOWER AND A LITTLE MORE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

WITH DEEPER SATURATION AND SOME LIFT...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
ON THE NAM BUT MODERATE ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
THE STRONGER AND MORE NORTH LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SHORTWAVE REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AS THICKNESS VALUES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS IT
EXTENDS TO A WSW TO NNE ORIENTATION ON THE GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
A MORE ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH A CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN.

EVEN THROUGH THE UPPER PATTERNS ARE DIFFERENT...THEY BOTH HAVE A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE 12Z GFS HAS A MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A RIDGE. THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT WESTERN TROUGH DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY ON THE MODELS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX IS QUICKER ON BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 1 KFT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
LOWER MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND SATURDAY.

WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD VSBYS
DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 1 MILE. COULD SEE SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
LOCALIZED AREAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.