Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY TONIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE NIGHT STARTING
OUT MOSTLY CLEAR. MODEL RH AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATER IN THE
NIGHT...BUT ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE
DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD SUNDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS FIRE IN THE WEST AND/OR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA AS
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS BACK IN. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...AS GFS/NAM/CANADIAN REGIONAL SOLUTIONS HOLD ONTO THE
HIGH LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN NH
BRING THE PRECIP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WENT MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY HIGHS...THOUGH IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE UNDER ALL DAY ONSHORE WINDS. BEST
CHANCE FOR UPPER 80S WILL BE NORTHWEST UNDER COMBINATION OF HIGHER
TEMPS ALOFT AND MORE SUNSHINE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH EXERTING GREATER INFLUENCE WITH MODELS FOR THE MOST
PART TRENDING DRIER. 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING THE DRY
LOOK. THE 00Z GFS IS THE OUTLIER. WOULD LIKE TO PULL POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. WARM STILL WITH 925 TEMPS IN THE MID 20S CELSIUS.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
925 TEMPS CLIMB DEEPER INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
EXPLODE PRECIP WITHIN THE WARM RIDGE WITH ERRONEOUS LOOKING
VORTICITY BULLSEYES. PREFER THE HANDLING OF PRECIP TRENDS ON THE
GEM/ECMWF AND CLEANER LOOK TO VORTICITY FIELDS...AND THUS KEEPING
EMPHASIS FURTHER NW OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE RIDGE RIDING ZONE.
HOWEVER THERE IS A WAA SIGNAL WITH THE PASSING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/925-850 BAROCLINICITY THAT SEEMS WORTHY OF HAVING SOME
POPS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER NEW ECMWF
CAME IN SHOWING DRY SCENARIO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS WELL. WILL BOOST TEMPS A BIT WITH SOME LOWER 90S
LIKELY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY GRADUALLY
FLATTENING THE FLOW. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
SHRA/TSRA WITH BULK OF THIS OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR STORMS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN SETS IN WITH NWLY POST FRONTAL WIND
REGIME. ANOTHER FRONT MAY COME INTO THE PICTURE IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY TIMEFRAME BUT ALL IN ALL THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A
LARGELY UNEVENTFUL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOME FOG MAY TRY
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BRINGS LIGHT TO CALM WINDS....BUT
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT COULD
DISRUPT THE FOG POTENTIAL.

MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP IN THE FAR WEST OR SOUTHWEST
LATER SUNDAY AS THE HIGH HEADS EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER
THOUGH...HOLDING ONTO THE HIGH A BIT LONGER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR


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