Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 121403 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
903 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-The combination of low humidity and gusty southwest winds will
 lead to elevated fire weather conditions again today, primarily
 north and west of Madison to Fond du Lac.

-Well above average temperatures are expected through Wednesday.
 Near normal temperatures to return by early next week.

-Showers with thunderstorms possible Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 903 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

High clouds should thin late morning into the afternoon,
allowing temps to approach/reach forecast highs for the
afternoon. Will be monitoring RH trends this afternoon given the
elevated fire weather concerns. In general though, the forecast
looks on track through the remainder of the day.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 300 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Today through Wednesday:

Low pressure will gradually slide across northern Wisconsin
today bringing a strengthened pressure gradient across the
region with breezy southwest winds expected. In addition to
plenty of mixing we should see very warm temperatures today,
likely (80%) the warmest of the week. Given some weak forcing
aloft around 500mb expect some light cloud cover at times but it
should largely remain mostly sunny for much of the day today.

Into Wednesday we will see some weak shortwave activity to the
south, associated with some moisture in the midlevels, that at
least initially seems likely (90%) to remain south of the area.
By the late afternoon another flare up of some PVA shortwave
action could be just enough to allow for a few showers and maybe
even a weak storm to sneak into the far southeastern part of the
area by the late afternoon and lasting into the early parts of
the evening. In addition high clouds will be increasing in
density as the next system approaches from the southwest.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 300 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Wednesday night through Monday:

Wednesday night through Thursday night and perhaps even
lingering into Friday we will see a system pushing through,
initially coming in from the southwest. This will be a fairly
deep low pressure system at first but as it lifts northeast it
is expected to weaken though this will not mean much degradation
in precip chances. The low will be associated with a weakly
closed low aloft with plenty of PVA and moisture. In addition
for a large portion of the event we should expect a fairly moist
midlevel region with some WAA as well. While we should
certainly see some breaks in the precip it is a bit difficult to
pin down any timing for break at this time. Some thunder is
possible given some weak instability in the 100-500 J/kg range
with the best chances Thursday afternoon and evening.

Into Friday we may (30%) see some lingering precip including
some snow potential to the northwest as the system pushes out.
Friday will also gradually clear out as a brief period of higher
pressure fill in behind the system. However by Saturday morning
the next system will already be pushing in from the northwest
through south-central Canada. There is still a lot of
uncertainty on what we see from this system in terms of precip
as chances seem questionable due mostly to inconsistencies in
timing of forcing with the better moisture in the low levels.
Right now precip chances remain at around 20-30% with the best
chances coming on the backside of the system Sunday likely in
the form of snow but overall not much precip is expected with
this system at this time. However we could very well see this
change over the next few days so we will be paying attention to
this as the system approaches because the forcing is fairly
strong. The main impact from this system with far more certainty
will be the frontal passage that will bring cooler conditions
back to southern WI for a least a period.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 903 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Breezy southwest winds and BKN to OVC high clouds are expected
today. Winds and clouds will decrease this evening into tonight
as high pressure briefly builds in from the north. Expect
easterly winds to develop Wednesday ahead of an approaching low
pressure system, with increasing VFR ceilings also expected
tomorrow. Isolated showers will be possible by the afternoon as
an area of warm air advection aloft moves through.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 300 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

South to southwest winds will increase through today as the
pressure gradient strengthens over Lake Michigan. This is due to
a departing surface high and an approaching weak low pressure
sliding across Lake Superior. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for breezy southwest winds today. Thursday into Friday
morning, an area of low pressure is forecast to cross Iowa and
northern Indiana. This will bring a period of modest northeast
to north winds to Lake Michigan and building waves. Another
Small Craft will likely be needed Thursday into Friday.

Another system pushing through south central Canada will be
coming through Saturday and will bring another period of breezy
southwest winds.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Tuesday.

&&

$$

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