Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 060336 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
936 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.UPDATE...
Expect wind gusts of 20-25 knots through the night. They may die
down for a time early Wednesday as the pressure gradient slacks
slightly with a weak trough passing to the south. Clouds from this
feature may slide across southwest WI. A shortwave dropping
southward across the state will bring increasing clouds on
Wednesday and maybe some flurries.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk west winds will continue through Wednesday. A few Gale
force gusts are expected through the night. Expect small craft
advisory winds on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 537 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017)

UPDATE...
Winds will continue die down somewhat now that we`ve lost daytime
heating, but will remain brisk through the night. The pressure
gradient will remain pretty tight and soundings show steep low
level lapse rates tapping some 25 kt or so winds.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...
Brisk west winds will continue through Wednesday. They will weaken
somewhat overnight and there is some uncertainty with how much
winds will gust overnight. Regardless, seeing enough evidence that
there will be on and off mixing resulting in gusts of 20-25 kts so
have included that in tafs. Sct to bkn ceilings of 2500-4000ft
will sag southward through the region Wednesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 241 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Wednesday...Forecast confidence is...High

Still getting wind advisory wind gusts early this afternoon. The
gusts should begin to diminish as we lose peak heating. Will let
the advisory expire at 6 pm.

A cold period. Still brisk west winds which will bring wind
chills to around zero or the single digits into Wednesday
morning.

The large upper trough will extend south across the Great Lakes.
A weak mid level shortwave moves through Wednesday morning. This
could bring a few flurries as the higher 850 mb sags south. 850
mb temps are around -13 Celsius.

LONG TERM...

Thursday through Saturday...Forecast confidence is...High

The much colder pattern with below normal temperatures will
continue. Several shortwaves in the northwest upper flow with the
digging upper trough, will bring reinforcing shots of colder air
through this period. On Friday the trough sharpens, and we may
get enough light snow to accumulate a dusting during the evening,
but less than an inch.

Sunday and Monday...Forecast confidence is...Medium

The large cold mid/upper trough moves east with a continued
northwest upper flow, but we should get a slight moderation in
the cold temperatures with a shortwave moving across the northern
plains to mid Mississippi valley. We could see some light snow or
flurry potential later Monday with the next cold front.

Tuesday...Forecast confidence is...Medium

The upper trough again digs south across the Great Lakes, all the
way to the southeast U.S. resulting in another shot of cold below
normal temperatures.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

The strong west winds will diminish slightly with the loss of
afternoon heating. Winds should be lower on Wednesday though
still breezy west winds expected. A few shallow cumulus. Low level
RH increases gradually from the northwest later tonight and
especially Wednesday, so expect VFR or higher based MVFR ceilings.

MARINE...

Gale Warning remains in effect through tonight with tight
pressure gradient resulting in persistently strong and gusty west
winds. Winds will gradually decrease after midnight. Expect small
craft advisory winds Wednesday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update/Aviation/Marine...Marquardt
Tonight through Tuesday...Hentz



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