Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 220308
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1008 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

.UPDATE...AN AREA OF LGT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE FAR NRN
CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ITS COLD
FRONT MOVES SWD FROM CENTRAL WI. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTH ACROSS SRN WI AND ESPECIALLY LAKE MI DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS AND COOLING. LOW
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND FOLLOW THE FRONT. ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL
ARRIVE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY FRI AFT TO CLEAR MOST OF THE
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LOW STRATUS WILL FORM AFTER THE COLD FROPA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRI. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM
600-1200 FEET WITH THE LOWEST CIGS OVER THE COUNTIES BORDERING
LAKE MI. THE CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE FRI AM WITH
MO SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRI AFT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS
FROM LGT FOG IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FROPA BUT ALSO DURING AND
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA.


&&

.MARINE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL GIVE WAY TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SWD
OVER LAKE MI AND ADJACENT SRN WI. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH OVER THE LAKE FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM. NLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AFTERWARD.
BRISK NLY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL THEN PREVAIL FRI INTO FRI EVE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING. MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS POP FARTHER WEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING BREEZY WINDS AND A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS. WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME FOG LINGER OVER AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT FOR COOLER
TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM EASTERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BRANCHES INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS
AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MOS GUIDANCE AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING THE FREEZING MARK. KEPT
FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUED THE HWO MENTION. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD NIGHT
TO COVER OR BRING ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION INDOORS.

AFTER A COOL START SATURDAY IS LOOKING RATHER MILD AWAY FROM THE
LAKE WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LOOK FOR
A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOCALLY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S ON THE LAKESHORE...TO THE MIDDLE 60S ALONG AND WEST OF
MADISON.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB ABOVE ONE INCH ON
SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET POINTS INTO THE AREA
BRINGING IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUGGESTING THUNDER POTENTIAL. THE
21.12Z GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
ARE AVAILABLE DURING THIS TIME...IN TANDEM WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE 21.00Z ECMWF IS A BIT MORE MODEST...KEEPING
THE BETTER INSTABILITY OFF TO OUR WEST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT HERE...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MIGHT NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SUNDAY.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE MILDER DAY...WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S TO LOW 70S. MONDAY COULD BE COOLER...WITH THE MILDER
READINGS POTENTIALLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COLD THERMAL ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS IN LIFTING A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. ROCKIES LEE
CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE DEEPENING LOW
QUICKLY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THIS IS ALSO A PERIOD WHERE STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONS TURNING DRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING.

LOWER VSBYS CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND BREEZY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER
CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THIS FRONT...EVENTUALLY MIXING OUT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO LATE EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
START TIME...BUT MAINLY LEFT IT THE SAME. BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE WAVES SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SPM



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