Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 221745
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

The cold front has moved through the forecast area, but the
southwest winds behind the front will give us another warmer than
normal day. Mainly high clouds continue working through the area
early this morning, but we expect those to slowly depart to the
east.

Hence today will be a partly cloudy day with most areas reaching
the low to mid 60s. It will become breezy across western MN
mainly, with southwesterly winds of 10-15 MPH with gusts to 20
MPH.

With the relatively warm air mass remaining in place tonight, lows
will only drop into the mid to upper 40s. Normal lows for this
time of year are in the mid to upper 30s. Southerly winds of
10-15 MPH will persist through the night. Meanwhile, the next
surface low will be approaching from the northwest tonight, with
the cold front pushing into western MN by early tomorrow morning.
Winds will quickly turn northwesterly and increase in speed when
the front moves through.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Picking up the long term tomorrow morning, the immediate concern
is the front that will already be across western MN. AS this front
moves through during the day, winds will turn northwesterly and
increase quickly. There is a strong shortwave associated with
this, but a lack of deep moisture will limit precip amounts, but
still think a slight chance of rain is warranted for most areas
tomorrow into tomorrow night. The main issue is the wind, which
will likely be in the 20-25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH across
western MN by tomorrow afternoon.

Tuesday will be cooler with highs in the upper 40s and wrap around
moisture bringing showers to western WI. With the large surface
low to the east and high pressure pushing in from the west,
northwest winds of 15-20 MPH are likely through the day.

A brief warm up is expected on Wednesday as a clipper like system
passes to our northeast. As we look into the extended period, an
amplified pattern appears likely with a large trough setting up
over the center of North America, which at this time looks to
bring some cool air to the region. With a large upper low
developing and moving through next weekend, we could see a mix of
rain and snow during that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Main concern is timing wind shifts with a pair of cold fropas
tomorrow. We will see winds back to the SSE this evening ahead of
these boundaries. Boundary one will send the winds to the SW, with
wind shift two coming 3 or 4 hours later with the NW winds. It is
this second boundary that will see strong winds with it as well,
with the potential for some 40kt gusts out in western MN Monday.
These boundaries and associated upper waves will bring bouts of
mid-level clouds with. Each will have a small precip chance as
well, but confidence in precip even occurring is too low to have
any sort of mention in the TAFs.

KMSP...First boundary will come through in the middle of the
morning push and give us a SW cross wind for much of the push,
though with wind speeds around 10 kts. By 17z, winds will be WNW.
High end of the gust potential Monday afternoon looks to be 30-35
kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind NW at 20G30 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW at 10 kts.
Thu...VFR with MVFR late. Wind S at 10 bcmg NW at 15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG


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