Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 190846
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES DIP 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH HAS
REMAIN PACKED TIGHTLY ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 6-12KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE BKN-OVC STRATUS DECK HAS SUPPLIED SOME
INSULATION AS WELL. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD UP IN THE
35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL FOR
FROST...OTHER THAN IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MN UP TOWARD ALEXANDRIA AND
LITTLE FALLS.

TONIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY HOWEVER...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS AND WINDS LIGHTEN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE AS A TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT IT
MAY NOT BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TONIGHT. OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE
LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE LONGER
TO SPREAD INTO. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST A FROST ADVISORY FOR
SAID AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS MONDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN MID 50S...WHICH IS
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST
PART THRU SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. IT STILL
LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRST...WEDNESDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A SHRTWV MOVING SE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT...AND WHETHER A SHRTWV MOVING NE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BE STRONGER AND ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MN. THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE DENSER
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE QUESTION REMAINS ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV MOVING NE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHETHER THE
INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE ENOUGH FOR SOME -SHRA ALONG THE
IOWA BORDER. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS WILL CONTINUE.

AS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BOTH THE EC/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SE
CONUS LEADING TO CONCERNS WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SFC FEATURES.
THE EC IS WEAKER WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND FURTHER EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND AND
DRYING THINGS OUT BY MONDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
IN THE  SE...KEPT SUNDAY THE WETTEST AND CONTINUED A CHANCE OF -SHRA
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS MORE CORRECT IN TERMS OF THE
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE...THE SFC FEATURES WILL BE FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER AND UNSETTLED CONDS FOR SUNDAY.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA...AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT LIKELY REMAINING IN A COOLER PATTERN THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

CEILINGS TO REMAIN GENERALLY AS VFR BUT THERE MAY BE SOME BOUNCING
INTO UPPER-END MVFR RANGE OCCASIONALLY AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. AS THE DEEP LOW PRES CENTER ROTATES OFF TO THE GREAT
LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER
OUT...RESULTING IN VFR CONDS BY MIDDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLD SPRINKLES IN ERN MN
INTO WRN WI...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. NW WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO ARND 10 KT OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING THERE
THRU TMRW.

KMSP...MAINLY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT A FEW PERIODS OF 2K-3K FT
CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. DECKS WILL THEN RISE TO
VFR LEVELS AFTER DAYBREAK.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNW 5 TO 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NE 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>043-
     047>050-054>057-064.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023-025-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.