Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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409
FXUS63 KMKX 070920
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
320 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.

The large occluded low over Ontario Canada will slowly move into
Quebec Canada tonight. This will allow brisk wly winds and cold
advection to continue. A trailing upper trough from the occlusion
will then approach late tonight with perhaps a few flurries. The
stratocumulus field to the north and west will continue to be on the
periphery of srn WI today with higher confidence of widespread
stratus tonight. Thus some sunshine will occur at times today
although there will be high clouds this morning especially over the
srn CWA. Went with high temps of middle to upper 20s with warmest
temps in the east where the snow has melted. Lows tonight in the
teens.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is high.

Brisk west winds will continue through Thursday as the tight
pressure gradient lingers across the region. There may be flurries
due to steep low level lapse rates tapping a saturated dendrite
growth zone. On Friday low pressure moves away across far southeast
Canada while high pressure drops down into the Northern Plains
accompanied by cooler temperatures. The high moves over the region
Friday night bringing the coldest night of the weekend.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is moderate.

Models have been consistent showing cyclogeneis occuring east of the
Rockies and moving across northern Illinois, bringing snow Saturday
night and Sunday. A shortwave trough moves through overnight and
there is favorable upper divergence from a 120 kt upper jet. Model
consensus gives 5 to 6 inches of snow. The GFS has a much stronger
shortwave and higher QPF so this is something to keep an eye on.

Southerly flow ahead of this system brings a temporary increase in
temperatures during this time.


.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast confidence is moderate.

Northwest flow at the mid levels dominates and arctic high pressure
pushes into the region. It will be cold, then it looks to get colder
as the week goes on. Then there are mixed signals for light snow on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
Brisk wly winds and sct-bkn020-030 will continue today and
tonight. There is more confidence for widespread MVFR Cigs for
tonight into Thu.


&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is not in effect until 6 AM Friday.
A large low pressure area will move across southern Canada but still
bring brisk westerly winds to Lake MI into early Friday AM. High
waves will occur toward the open waters.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...Marquardt



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