Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 172048
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
348 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Polar airmass over the region for much of the week with the
  exception of a brief mild period on Tue.

- Light snow accumulations are possible later Thursday and
  Thursday night and possibly again Sunday into Sunday night.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 348 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Tonight through Monday:

The shortwave trough has exited to the east but stratocumulus
and flurries continue within the large upper trough over the
region. The broken cloud cover could scatter at times later
this evening and overnight, but confidence is not high until the
500 mb height rises arrive for Mon afternoon. Polar air and
below normal temps will continue into Mon.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 348 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Monday night through Sunday:

A couple shortwave troughs within nwly flow aloft will move
across the Great Lakes Mon nt-Tue, while a sfc low will track
from Manitoba across the nrn Great Lakes for the same period.
Thus breezy swly winds will briefly bring a milder airmass into
srn WI for Mon nt-Tue, with the dry cold frontal passage for
Tue AM. Brisk nwly winds will then bring a return of polar air
for the middle of the week.

The GEFS and ECMWF agree fairly well for a period of light snow
late Thu into Fri AM via 850-700 mb warm, moist advection ahead
of a low amplitude shortwave trough approaching from the nrn
Great Plains. Afterward, there is also better agreement among
the ensemble means for lee side cyclogenesis in CO to gradually
move toward Lake MI and surrounding areas for early next week.
There is still your typical uncertainty a whole week out, but
this event could begin with snow and may or may not turn to
rain.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 348 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Bkn035-040 stratocumulus for much of the period from this
afternoon through Mon AM with brief flurries. Clearing skies
then expected from late Mon AM into the afternoon. Modest to
brisk nwly winds this afternoon into Mon.


Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 348 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Brisk northwest winds will continue tonight into Monday morning as
low pressure continues to move away across Quebec, and polar high
pressure of 30.4 inches builds south through the Great Plains.
Modest northwest winds will then back westerly Monday evening
becoming breezy southwest winds late Monday night and Tuesday
morning, as low pressure around 29.5 inches digs south from
Canada into the northern Great Lakes. A few gale force gusts will
be possible. A cold frontal passage will then shift the winds to
brisk northwesterly Tuesday afternoon and continue through
Wednesday. Gales will be possible over the far northern portion of
the lake on Wednesday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sheboygan to Winthrop
Harbor into this evening for gusty northwest winds. Another
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Tuesday morning into
the early afternoon for breezy southwest winds. Yet another
advisory may be needed Wednesday into Wednesday evening for
brisk northwest winds.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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