Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251040
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
540 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Conditions
look dry with any showers or storms remaining west of the TAF
sites through 12z Tuesday. The chance for rain won`t reach
southeast Wisconsin until after 18z Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 230 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

The main concern this period is when and whether we`ll see some
showers/possible storms push into our far western forecast area.
There is a weakening cold front approaching the area, but it stays
west of the MS river this afternoon. We still have a lot of
ridging aloft and the soundings show the potential for enhanced low
level drying due to mixing this afternoon. Will keep a token
slight chc pop across our far west late this afternoon in case
something sneaks in from the west, but it looks pretty dry. Things
don`t get much better tonight with respect to precipitation
progression as the front doesn`t really move that much. Thus, rain
chances will stay well wet of Madison through the night. The focus
thus turns to Tuesday for precip chances. Look for another warm
day today, though a few degrees cooler than yesterday, still in
the hot category for late September.

Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
One last day of abnormal warmth/dew points as approaching cold
front likely to generate some shra/tsra. MLCAPE values look to
be in the 500 to 1000 j/kg. The main shortwave will have its
biggest forcing influence to our north though some weaker vort
activity is proggd across the area. Primary lifting mechanism
will be the surface/850 fronts swinging through. QPF progs
favoring the higher amounts further north in closer proximity to
surface low and positioning of better upper dynamics. 925 temps
will be in the 20-23c range ahead of the front and then some cool
advection starts taking pace during the afternoon in the wake of
the front and this looks to be more noticeable in the northwest
cwa.

Wednesday and Thursday - Confidence...Medium
A much cooler and drier airmass will be in place with high
pressure ridging in from the Plains. Low level thermal trough
with 925 temps down to a 7 or 8c off the NAM by 12z Thursday. This
is the coolest solution. A brief thermal ridge gets pulled back
into WI on Thursday ahead of another cold front. The cold front
will move into northern WI during the day Thursday and then will
slide through southern WI Thursday evening with a few shra
possible then.

Friday through Sunday - Confidence...Medium
High pressure will dominate through the weekend with dry weather
expected. The high shifts to our east on Sunday with a weak return
flow setting up. Models show any precip would be off in the Plains
with better waa/moist advection regime there.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period. Conditions look dry with any showers or storms remaining
west of the TAF sites through 12z Tuesday.

MARINE...Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory
levels through the week. A cold front will push through the region,
switching winds from southerly to northwest Tuesday afternoon
into the evening. That will also come with a chance of showers or
a thunderstorm.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Davis
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Collar


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