Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240227
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...PUSHED UP START TIME OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS AREAS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN CWA. ALSO
INCLUDED DANE AND GREEN COUNTIES IN DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS LATE
NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT FARTHER
EAST WITH THE LIKLIHOOD FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO THE REST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST WI.

STRATUS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE EAST AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY WRT DENSE FOG.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LOWER DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
FRI MRNG BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA...EXITING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LINGER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AREA FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MOIST AIRMASS
LINGERING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.

THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP DENSE FOG DEVELOP HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. SOME
DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD LATER ON.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. OTHER MODELS HINT AT QPF. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE WITH MOIST PROFILES UP TO 2-4K FT. LOOKS MARGINAL SO KEPT
FORECAST DRY..

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS.
STRONG NW FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SAT AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S SUN. 500MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD ON SUN BEFORE FLOW
TURNS SW.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN WI BY TUES MORNING. PRECIP STARTS MON MORNING WITH A BREAK
LIKELY MIDDAY. GFS INDICATES EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIP WINDING
DOWN TUES MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DELAYS THE SECOND ROUND OF
RAIN UNTIL TUES AND LINGERS IT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HENCE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF PRECIP BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AT SOME POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON PER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR DRY CONDITIONS WED. LATEST ECMWF
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE AT
MADISON AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND 15Z FRIDAY...BUT LEFT
AT 1 MILE IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

BRISK WINDS MAY BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-
     062-063-067-068.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



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