Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 010326
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
926 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016
.UPDATE...Initial area of light mixed precipitation dwindling over
northeast CWA this evening. However approaching low pressure trof
and lingering cyclonic curvature should continue to bring
scattered light rain and snow showers to southern WI through the
late night. Temperatures should remain at or slight above freezing
so minimum travel difficulties are expected with little if any
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...Expect MVFR...occasionally IFR cigs to
persist into Thursday followed by gradually increasing cigs to
higher MVFR. Lingering cyclonic curvature and passing weak mid-
level short wave trof will result in lingering light rain and snow
showers with minimum visibility restriction.
.MARINE...Southwest winds will veer to the west tonight as low
pressure surface trof weakens and passes to the east of the area.
A few wind gusts to around 25 knots are possible overnight,
especially south of North Point Light, but these higher gusts
should be infrequent enough to not require issuing a Small Craft
Advisory. Scattered light rain and snow showers will continue
through the late night.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/
Tonight and Thursday...Forecast Confidence...Medium.
Light precipitation is expected this evening into Thursday as low
pressure moves through the state. The main forecast issue through
tomorrow is precipitation type. Temperatures will be right on the
border of rain/snow. Dewpoints are a little on the mild side
right now for seeing a transition to all snow, though it does look
like a little drier air may advect in during the evening. Either
way, precipitation will be light and snow accumulations are not
expected given the borderline temperatures.
The precip should wind down by early Thursday afternoon. Clouds
will hang around all day though, so temperatures will not vary
much. Stuck with high temps around 40.
Thursday night through Saturday...Confidence is high. Low
pressure will finally exit to the east with shortwave ridging
moving into the region by Saturday. Quiet weather conditions are
expected, with variable cloud coverage and seasonable
Saturday night and Sunday...Confidence is medium. A shortwave
trough will spread lift into the region. This system will have to
fight some dry air initially, though this should be overcome prior
to daybreak on Sunday. Vertical temperature and moisture profiles
support light snow, mixing with rain as the day progresses on
Sunday. Model QPF is generally on the light side (around 0.10"
give or take), which supports the potential of a light dusting of
accumulation prior to warming above freezing late Sunday
Sunday Night onward...Confidence is low. Increasingly active
weather pattern is expected heading into next week. Another brief
period of shortwave ridging Monday will bring quiet weather and
at/above average temperatures. The forecast for Tuesday onward is,
to say the least, challenging. Model to model and run to run
consistency continues to be low, with solutions varying
considerably. At this juncture it is safe to say that the weather
pattern next week will become more active, but confidence in the
overall storm track and timing of shortwaves within the flow is
quite low. Given the spread in potential solutions, the forecast
features near average temperatures and a chance for light rain
(perhaps mixing with light snow early) on Tuesday.
Low clouds are expected to stick around through Thursday, possibly
dipping down to IFR at times.
Light precip will move through this evening and overnight, winding
down Thursday morning into early afternoon. Temps will be borderline
for snow through tomorrow, so went with mainly a rain/snow mix.
Precip will be very light through this event, with no snow
Westerly winds will be on the breezy side tonight and Thursday.
Could see an occasional gust to 25 knots, but overall looks too
borderline to issue a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Waves will
be on the lower end given the offshore winds.
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
TONIGHT/Thursday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday...Gagan