Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 030258
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
858 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RAPID-UPDATE/HI-RES MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT TIMING
IN GOING FORECAST. STILL LOOKS AS IF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS DRY LAYER ON AREA 00Z
SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 930 MB AND 750 MB SATURATES WITH THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KTS. 00Z NAM IN LINE WITH
18Z RUN WITH ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS BARELY NUDGING INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND THE NOON HOUR...WITH WARM LAYER BETWEEN
850MB AND 700MB PUSHING WELL NORTH INTO THE CWA BRINGING A MIX TO
THE SOUTHERN CWA. MODEL QPF STILL INDICATES MAJORITY OF PCPN WILL
FALL PRIOR TO 18Z AS SNOW...THEN TAPERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
LATE EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT.


 &&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DROP RAPIDLY TO
IFR LEVELS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z THROUGH 15Z...THEN SEE THE SNOW
CHANGE TO A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN
AFTER 15Z AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES...AND POSSIBLY KMSN. WILL SEE
THE MIXY PRECIPITATION LIGHTEN AFTER 18Z THEN CHANGE BACK TO ALL
SNOW AS IT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 18Z. SOME
INDICATIONS THAT STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL AWAIT
FULL 00Z DATA SET TO COME IN BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO ADD TO TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGE TO GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH AROUND 12Z...THEN
TURN WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND INCREASE WITH
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TRAILING COLD
FRONT. WHILE WINDS MAY EASE FOR A TIME BETWEEN THE TROUGH PASSAGE
AND THE COLD FRONT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR LONG ENOUGH TO SEPARATE
THE ADVISORY INTO TWO PERIODS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

STEADY AS SHE GOES WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. NO BIG CHANGES
REQUIRED AS THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT. TRIED TO FINE TUNE
SOME OF THE TIMING. STILL LOOKING AT SNOW MOVING IN QUICKLY AFTER
ABOUT 4 AM TONIGHT WITH A STRONG SHOT OF ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM.
A WARM LAYER THEN PUSHES IN BETWEEN 800-700MB AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX IN SOME COMBINATION OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MILWAUKEE WILL GET INTO IT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MADISON. AS WE/VE
BEEN DISCUSSING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BY THE TIME THE MIX MOVES
IN...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE WAA WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTH AND THE PRECIP RATES WILL BE MUCH LOWER. SO IMPACT FROM THE
MIX SHOULDN/T BE TOO BAD. TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...SO THE EVENING RUSH HOUR
SHOULD BE OKAY.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT UNCHANGED...RUNNING FROM
3 AM THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY. IT/S A MARGINAL ADVISORY GIVEN THE SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED.

THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL OF
IT EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING.

 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN EXCEPTIONALLY QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND COLD AIR
WILL AGAIN FLOW SOUTH INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. WIND
CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE PUSHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...SO
WE MAY SEE ONE MORE WIND CHILL ADVISORY BEFORE THIS WINTER IS
OVER...

TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND BACK
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. DON/T TELL ANYONE...BUT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WE MAY SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE 40S NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS PLACE...BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT THE
WINTRY MIX. 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS S WI...WITH
THE WINTRY MIX CONSISTING OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND EVEN RAIN
IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE WINTRY MIX SHOULD START NEAR 15Z AS THE
WARM AIR NOSES INTO THE STATE. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE
COMMON AS THE SNOW MOVES IN...EVEN SOME IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE SNOW.

THE SNOW SHOULD BE MORE OF THE WET AND HEAVY VARIETY...WITH SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS BETWEEN 5:1 AND 7:1 TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE CRITICAL AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...LEADING TO
GUSTY WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM A MORE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUE MORNING TO SOUTHWEST BY TUE AFTN.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 12Z TUESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A MORE
WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-
     047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS


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