Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250235
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
835 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...PERSISTENT -SN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST CWA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST AS BETTER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST. MANY LOCATIONS
HAVE RECEIVED 3-4 INCHES SO FAR AND EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES SO WL BUMP UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY.

NMRS -SHSN TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST CWA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WL
CONTINUE WINTER WX ADVY IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER NORTH...WL EXTEND
ADVY UNTIL 12Z FOR COLUMBIA...GREEN LAKE AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES
FOR PERSISTENT -SN CONTINUE AFT MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO REST OF HEADINE TIMING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...-SN WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TNGT OVER MOST TAF SITES...BUT GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO TUE MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...BLUSTERY WEST WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXCEED 22 KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVY
WL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

QPF WISE THIS SYSTEM HAS UNDERACHIEVED AND RATIOS WERE QUITE LOW
AT THE CHANGEOVER WITH A WET HEAVY BURST THEN A TRANSITION TO A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. STILL SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PACKET LIFTING NORTH IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN MN AND ERN
IA. BASED ON 88-D ANIMATION WILL HEAVIER SNOW WILL FOCUS THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE
DOWNGRADED WARNING IN THE NORTH TO AN ADVISORY AND WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY IN PLACE ELSEWHERE SINCE WINDS...COLDER TEMPS AND THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE.
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5 INCH EVENT.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SHOW
GRADUAL DECREASE IN RH WITH TIME. SO GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS EARLY
THEN SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON. 925 TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -9C SO
EXPECTING MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUE NT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING THAT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
MO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER WAVE AND LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE WRN
PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z THU. THUS MOST OF THE LGT
SNOW WILL NOW REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY
VERY LOW POPS ARE FORECAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WED NT AND THU WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WED NT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LGT SNOW WITH THESE
FEATURES. A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL LINGER AT LEAST FOR
THANKSGIVING MORNING WITH LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE. ALREADY
COLD TEMPS WILL GET COLDER ON THANKSGIVING AND THANKSGIVING NIGHT
DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA
AND THE USA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT. THE SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES
OF LGT SNOW ON FRI FOLLOWED BY MILD TEMPS FOR SAT. COLD FROPA THEN
FOR LATE SAT NT AND SUN WITH THE CORE OF THE POLAR HIGH TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH. COLD TEMPS TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY BUT SLY FLOW AND
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AFTERWARD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME POCKET OF LIFR VSBYS
IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS INT THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE SNOW FROM SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CHANGE THE WET HEAVIER SNOW TO A LIGHTER TEXTURE SO
BLOWING SNOW BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY SO LESS WIND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE STUBBORN AT LEAST FOR
THE MORNING HOURS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AS WEST WINDS RAMP UP IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTED LOW. GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. HIGHEST WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ056-
     062-063-067>069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-057>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



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