Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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182
FXUS63 KMKX 180932
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
332 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

.TODAY - Confidence...Medium.

GFS/ECMWF blend used as this guidance showing much better run to run
consistency and agreement versus NAM.  Strengthening low pressure
passing by well to the south today.  Associated with the low is a
sharpening mid-level short wave and area of mid-level
frontogenetical forcing that will pass across southern Wisconsin
this morning.  Increasing northerly winds in the low levels will
pull colder air across southern Wisconsin through the morning.
Forecast soundings show likely potential for initial surge of rain
becoming mixed with or changing over to wet snow for an hour or two
between 12Z and 15Z, especially over south central WI.  Pavement
temperatures will remain above freezing, but strength of sloping
frontogenetical forcing may result in a burst of wet snow and
reduced visibilities with rapid accumulations on grassy and colder
surfaces.  The snow may change back over to light rain or drizzle
before ending later this morning and early afternoon.

TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High.

Dry and blustery conditions are expected tonight as the colder air
settles over the region.  Some lower clouds may stick around for
awhile in the cold northwest flow.

Sunday through Friday - Confidence...Medium to High
Overall quiet period with main forecast focus on temperature
swings. We`re seeing a nice uptick in temps for Monday then a
potent mid level trough drops in for Tuesday with a pronounced
surge of cold air advection. After that a moderating temp trend is
expected right through Friday. 925 temps are proggd to really ramp
up heading into Friday. A long ways off though enough support in
the guidance to suggest Superblend highs may be too low so a
collaborative boost was given to the Friday high temps.

&&

.AVIATION (09z TAFS)...Ceilings and visibilities will vary from IFR
to MVFR this morning, gradually improving to VFR this afternoon and
tonight. Blustery north winds will develop this morning.

&&

.MARINE...Wave heights most likely have subsided below 5 feet across
northern marine zone.  Hence wl cancel Small Craft Advisory an hour
early.  Otherwise, low pressure passing to the south will result in
a tightening pressure gradient and strengthening north winds this
morning.  The strong winds will continue through tonight but will
gradually east.  Gusts to 35 knots are expected to develop later
this morning, and continuing into tonight.  Hence status quo on Gale
Warning which begins at 15Z this morning and lasts through the
evening.  Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue
later tonight, possibly into Sunday morning.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Sunday through Friday...Collar



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