Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 160754
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
254 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.  ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED. A CLEAR
AND COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
UPPER FLOW PROGGD TO BE SWIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST. VORT AXIS
ACROSS NRN WI WITHIN THIS FLOW LOOKS HIGHLY SHEARED AND IN EITHER
NRN OR CNTRL WI. MEANWHILE GRADUALLY DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STILL INFLUENCE SRN WI. 925 TEMPS RISE INTO THE
11-13C RANGE SO CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF SFC TEMPS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/925 BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. BARRING ANY RAPID LAKE
SIDE ACCELERATIONS THE PROGGD TIMING OF FROPA IS 00-06Z TIME FRAME.
THE NAM IS SHOWING A MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF COOLER LAKE AIR WITH
A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A DRY THURSDAY IN
THE WORKS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESP NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE NE FLOW.
LLVL RH PROGS ARE SHOWING STRATUS POTENTIAL WITHIN THE COOLER
REGIME/THERMAL TROUGH. SO THE NAM MOS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING
SHOWING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING WED NGT INTO AT LEAST
THU AM. IF THIS LINGERS THEN THE NAM MOS TEMPS MAY END UP BEING
BETTER...BUT FOR NOW WILL STEER MORE IN THE MIDDLE GROUND.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WITH THE HIGH WELL TO THE EAST A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP AND
BRING WARMER AIR INTO SRN WI. 850 MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER 18Z
THOUGH BOUNDARY AND LLJ AXIS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE DAY. IN FACT 582DM RIDGE NUDGES INTO SRN WI WITH THE
MAIN VORT TRACK AND DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH. IF THIS MODEL TREND
CONTINUES THEN POPS CAN BE FURTHER SCALES BACK ACROSS THE CWA.

.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BEST SHOT AT PRECIP THIS FCST PACKAGE. UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER
WITH SURFACE/850 FRONTS COMING INTO PLAY AS WELL. DECENT MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME MLCAPE AS WELL...SO THUNDER IDEA LOOKS
GOOD. 0-6KM SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS POINT.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
SUBSTANTIAL VARIATION IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE WRN GRT LAKES. THE GEM IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING TAKING HOLD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH
JUST AN ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE SWINGING THROUGH. WILL PLAY IT WITH
EARLY SHRA CHCS SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING TAKING HOLD
FOR MONDAY...MUCH LIKE THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...GENERALLY LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH FEW CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR


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