Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 210936
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
436 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...The severe MCS over nw WI and ern MN continues
to move sewd being fueled by strong thetae advection and resultant
MUCAPEs of 3000 joules. Do not see why it would not continue into
srn WI and went with likely PoPs over the nrn and ern CWA for now.
Believe the SVR potential will remain with the MCS through the
morning. Due to the rain cooled air and morning cloudiness,
cancelled the heat headlines north of Madison and Milwaukee.
Confidence was lower on taking the same action elsewhere. Also those
areas may still reach heat criteria on Friday whereas to the north
it probably won`t. Only 20-30 PoPs for thunderstorms from later
this afternoon and tonight.


FRIDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

There is a good chance for quiet weather across southern WI on
Friday. Any convection today and/or tonight should push outflow
boundaries south of the WI border by Fri. If not, a surface trough
making its way through the region should be south of WI by midday.

The hot air will have a chance to build into central WI and expand
into south central WI during the day Fri, so as long as there are no
thunderstorms, we should be able to reach heat advisory criteria in
the southwest half of the MKX forecast area Friday.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Warm air advection (WAA), the nose of a low level jet and weak
shortwave activity will bring a decent chance for showers and
thunderstorms to WI Saturday. There is a better chance in the
afternoon than morning. Persistent WAA will keep the thunderstorm
chances going Sat night. Southern WI is in a marginal risk for
severe storms due to decent elevated CAPE.

A stronger shortwave trough tracking through the Northern Plains
will drag a surface trough/cold front through WI Sunday afternoon.
There should be thunderstorms with this front, with a chance for
severe due to strong cape but only marginal shear.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

It looks like a cooler and quieter weather pattern is in store for
southern WI for the first half of next week with high pressure over
the Great Lakes.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a potent shortwave tracking
through the Upper Great Lakes for the middle of the week which will
bring our next chance for storms.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A low stratus deck will continue over south
central WI this morning until thunderstorms pass from nw to se
through srn WI from 1330z through 1800z. Strong gusty winds, reduced
vsbys and cigs are expectd with the storms. Scattered cumulus is
then expected afterward. Tonight, stratus and light fog may form
especially due to the wet conditions from today`s rain.


&&

.MARINE...Sly flow is expected today and tonight but the wind flow
will likely be interrupted by a thunderstorm complex that will pass
later this morning. Strong gusty and variable winds are possible
during that time. Dense fog may occur at times from this afternoon
into the weekend due to a very moist airmass over the relatively
cooler waters of Lake MI.


&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from noon today to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     WIZ056-062>072.

LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...MRC


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