Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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211
FXUS63 KMKX 241039
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
539 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Showers across the southeast will gradually diminish this morning
into the afternoon. Widespread IFR CIGS early this morning will
also gradually lift to MVFR levels by early afternoon and VFR
levels toward evening. However, cool northerly winds coupled with
continue damp low level conditions tonight will lead to a
redevelopment of IFR CIGS from about 06-15z Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 302 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017)

Thursday through Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium.

The surface and upper lows will move away from the region and a col
will shift across the state. Low levels will remain fairly saturated
and steep low level lapse rates will support continued cloud cover
on Thursday but dry weather.

Models diverge already by Friday. A surface low will move south of
the state by models vary on its strength and whether precip will
brush the south. There are also low precip chances associated with a
weak frontal boundary that moves through Friday or Saturday,
depending on the model. Temperatures will change litter with this
front. Overall it will be dry through Saturday morning. Low
pressure passing south of the region along with divergence from an
upper jet bring better precip chances later Saturday. There is a
slight chance of thunder both days due to some elevated
instability.

Sunday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

An upper low will move from Canada and drop through the Upper Great
Lakes. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures. Several waves
of vorticity will bring precip and thunder chances through Tuesday.
Instability becomes surface based but there is lack of any organized
synoptic forcing right now. The closed low will become an open wave
around midweek losing its grip across the region. This will allow
surface high pressure to slide across the region bringing dry
weather.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

IFR conditions will persist through early to mid afternoon with
conditions gradually lifting to MVFR and possibly VFR levels for a
time this afternoon into the early evening. But, it looks like
the cool northeast winds will result in lower
conditions...MVFR/IFR again tonight...lingering into Thursday
morning. Light northeast winds this morning, will increase this
afternoon as low pressure intensifies over Indiana/Ohio. The
strongest winds will be across the southeast, lower out toward
Madison.

MARINE...

A marine dense fog advisory is in effect through 9 am this
morning. Increasing northeast winds will bring conditions
approaching small craft advisory levels today into tonight. Small
craft should exercise caution until winds and waves subside.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

Update...99
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...Marquardt



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