Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 060728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING THEN LINGER INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ENDING THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK TO THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A WAVE ON THE FRONT MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SECONDAY ISSUE IS JUST HOW
WARM IT WILL GET TODAY.

ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE A NON IDEAL SET UP FOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF AND
JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTERAL
CANADA WITH THE 95 TO 100 KNOT JET CORE CORSSING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THAT PUTS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE LIFT AREA OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS THE 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CORE DRIVES NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY TONIGHT. THIS
PUTS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IN THE TAIL OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE IS
VERY NOT CONDUCIVE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS IT THE TIME OF DAY
(MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT). THE SPC SREF SHOWS THIS WILL THE PROBABLITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND ONLY AS FAR
EAST AS US-131 WITH ITS LOWEST PROBLAITY IT PLOTS ON THE MAPS.

THERE IS STILL DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE EVEN SO THUS I DO BELEVIE WE
WILL SEE RAIN FROM THIS EVENT. TOMORROW THERE WILL BE TO MUCH
CLOUD COVER TO GET STRONG STORMS...EVEN OVER OUR SOUTHEAST BUT IT
WILL RAIN THROUGH.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US A
PARLTY SUNNY AND COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS...A COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL IL/IN. THIS FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN IN RESPONSE
TO A WAVE ON THE LOW MOVING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE AND PAINT SOME PCPN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY. THEN
ANOTHER LOW IS PROGD TO DEVELOP FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO
DEVELOP THIS LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE...AND GENERATE
PCPN. CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH THAT THAT WILL OCCUR. IT SEEMS MORE
PLAUSIBLE THAT THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FRIDAY. THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
SATURDAY...PCPN WILL PUSH FARTHER NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS A
QUASI WARM FRONT.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR FOG EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z, THEN BURNING OFF AROUND 14Z.
SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING THE LAKE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
MAY AFFECT KMKG AFTER 03Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

I WILL CONTINUE THE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
NEARSHORE AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NEAR SHORE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN.
THUS I SEE NO REASON NOT TO CONTINUE OUR CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER HAS ALLOWED RIVERS TO FALL BACK WITHIN
THEIR BANKS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RIVERS EITHER CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL OR HAVE BECOME STABLE. A ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT WITH QPF AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCHES. THE MORE ACTIVE
STORM TRACK STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BUT NUDGES
NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
WET AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...PENDING THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEK...AS A WHOLE...ARE
NOT REALLY CONCERNING BUT MORE SO BENEFICIAL WITH THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM



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