Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 142016
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
316 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Warmer weather is on the way for Thursday and temperatures will rise
well into the 40s. It`ll be short lived though as a cold front will
sweep across the state late in the day. Some fog and drizzle is
possible tonight and then rain is expected Thursday afternoon as low
pressure rides northeast along the cold front.

The weekend will be mostly dry as high pressure settles in. Next
week, however looks pretty wet and the potential for localized
flooding exists as a frontal boundary sets up over Lower Michigan
and areas of low pressure move along the boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 316 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Forecast concerns in the short term deal with fog an drizzle
potential tonight and chances for rain Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Skies are clear this afternoon but a large area of stratus has
slowly been moving north across Indiana this afternoon and should
move across the cwa this evening. With the low cloud deck and some
lift within according to bufkit omega profiles, some drizzle and fog
seems possible tonight and we included in the grids. The south flow
will draw up warmer air Thursday ahead of a cold front that will
move south across the cwa late in the day. However, prior to the
cold front moving through, temperatures will climb into the 40s.

Both the gfs and ecmwf show low pressure forming along the wave over
Illinois and then moving northeast across southeast Lower Michigan
late Thursday. We have high pops south of I-96 to account for this.
As colder air filters in behind the cold front Thursday evening,
rain will eventually mix with and change to snow but no accumulation
is expected. Mainly dry weather is expected Friday and Friday night
as high pressure settles over the state.



.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

The potential for quite a bit of rain is increasing as models
converge on a solution which includes a frontal boundary over the
cwa and waves of low pressure riding northeast along that boundary.

The weekend looks basically dry with highs in the 30s and even
warmer Monday and Tuesday as high pressure over the East Coast
produces a southwest wind flow over the Great Lakes. Low pressure
developing in the lee of the Rockies will move northeast toward
Minnesota Sunday and eventually pull a cold front south through
Michigan. As a deep upper trough develops over the Rockies, the
upper flow becomes southwesterly over Michigan Monday and the
frontal boundary will become stationary. Several short waves
ejecting out of the Rockies trough will induce waves of low pressure
across the Missouri Valley which will move along the frontal
boundary over the cwa and produce several rounds of rain from late
Monday through Wednesday. The gfs is a bit more progressive with the
sfc features. However, since it also keeps southwest flow aloft, the
more stationary ecmwf solution looks more reasonable. The ecmwf is
the wetter solution and would produce a couple inches of rain at
least. This would likely lead to localized flooding and so we`ll
keep an eye on this developing event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

We`re in for a big change in cloud heights during this period.
We`ve been watching a large area of stratus slowly creeping
northward. Cigs fall to IFR/LIFR pretty quickly once the cloud
deck moves in and we`ve reflected that in the TAFs. Think much
of the afternoon will be mostly clear, but cigs will develop from
south to north around 6 pm and cover the all of the TAF sites by
mid evening. Models are hinting at some drier air moving in around
12z at MKG which would lift cigs, but this isn`t certain by any
means. We could also some some drizzle develop overnight, but with
temperatures remaining above freezing we are not anticipating any
sfc icing.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1028 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

A warm up this week and up to a quarter inch of rain Thursday should
result in melting snow and ice, and rising river levels. This could
also result in shifting ice and additional ice jam formation.
Heavier rain and additional days with highs above freezing early
next week will lead to a greater concern for the possibility of
river flooding.

A flood advisory remains in effect for the Looking Glass River near
Eagle due to elevated levels of water/ice from an ice jam. River
levels in the vicinity of ice jams will continue to fluctuate by
several feet until the ice breaks free. An advisory has also been
issued for Sycamore Creek at Holt.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63



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