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000
FXUS63 KGRR 240021
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
821 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MOVE IN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

NO BIG STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE ONLY FORECAST ISSUE IS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY AND CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDER THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A WARM ADVECTION WING OF PRECIP EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO GRAZE THE NW FORECAST AREA THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
BEFORE RAINS ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING WITH MAIN BATCH OF RAIN GONE
BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS EAST. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST AS CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM
EDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED IS FOR THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWLY EVOLVES. RUN TO
RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS STILL NOT GOOD INDICATING ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
SPREAD TO ALLOW FOR UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OR ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LOWER
MICHIGAN BRING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...WITH EVEN THE CHANCE FOR WET SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND THURSDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. TOWARDS MORNING EASTERLY
WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. ON THURSDAY AROUND 15Z OR
SO...THE WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP SUBSTANTIALLY TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT WITH BASES DROPPING FROM
15000FT TO 5000FT FROM 00Z TO 12Z. 5000FT BASES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE
WESTERN TAF SITES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WE
WAIT FOR THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN AFTER 00Z TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
VEERING WEST ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
BE APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS TODAY. EVART WILL LIKELY BE
THE LONE ADVISORY BEYOND 24 HOURS. A CANCELLATION IS ANTICIPATED
FOR SCOTTVILLE BY SOMETIME THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. CROTON DAM
OPERATIONS HAVE DROPPED LEVELS BELOW ADVISORY STAGE...WHICH WILL
SOON BE CANCELED.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF AN
INCH. LESSER TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO
CREATE ANY CONCERN. THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY WARRANT WATCHING FOR
RAINFALL AND COOLER WEATHER MOVING IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...OSTUNO