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000
FXUS63 KGRR 161124
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
724 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY BRING A LITTLE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF MUSKEGON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF
I-96 LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. MAX TEMPS
WILL REBOUND TO REACH THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE INTO WI MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
MIXED PCPN NORTH OF MUSKEGON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT DRY WX
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA IN THAT TIME FRAME.
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S IN STRONG SOUTH
TO SW FLOW WAA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN MAINLY WELL
NORTH OF I-96. NORTH TO NW WINDS BEHIND THAT FRONT WILL ADVECT
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLD SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY. SOME
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY IN AREA OF
STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING MOVING
IN AND FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RIVER FORECASTS NOW HAVE 3 SITES GOING TO MAJOR FLOOD
STATUS...SCOTTVILLE ON THE PERE MARQUETTE...CROTON ON THE MUSKEGON
AND EVART ON THE MUSKEGON. FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
EVART IS CURRENTLY AT RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS DROPPED FOR THE DAM JUST NORTH OF REED
CITY AS CONDITIONS THERE HAVE STABILIZED. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THE DAM ON THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITE CLOUD AS
ASSESSMENTS CONTINUE IN THAT LOCATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...DUKE