Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 181448
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1048 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS AND
BREEZE CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THEN A SLOW CLEARING WILL SET IN.

TONIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED INLAND OF US-131 RESULTING
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL AREAS EXPECT FROM US-31 TO
THE LAKE SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

I ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GOING ON
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END BY MID AFTERNOON AS WARM
ADVECTION AND DRY AIR MOVE IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH IS AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE HAVE ONE MORE SHORTWAVE THAT TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THIS IS SEEN NICELY ON THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER NW WISCONSIN. THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY PASSES
WEST OF CHICAGO AROUND 10 AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE SHEAR ZONE
FROM THE SYSTEM WILL ENHANCED THE RAIN SHOWERS TILL THEN. ONCE THAT
IS THROUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH SO WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
GONE THE SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END. HOWEVER NORTH WINDS AND
THE COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND BUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE DUE TO THE NORTH WINDS. AS A RESULT MOST AREAS EAST
OF US-31 SHOULD SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. I ISSUED
A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS ISSUE. THE ONLY PROBLEM HERE IS IF THE
CLOUDS MOVE TO FAR INLAND TOWARD MORNING... THAT MAY LIMIT JUST
HOW FAR INLAND TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE TYPICAL SHOWERS WITH IT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS RATHER BENIGN FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FIRST PERIOD AND A
HALF OR MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SFC LOW COMING THROUGH ON MON AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THROUGH TUE MORNING.

THERE IS A GOOD CHC THAT THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THEN FROM LATER ON TUE RIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
FRI. WE WILL SEE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFY QUITE A BIT WITH OUR
EARLY WEEK TROUGH STRENGTHENING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A
STRONG LOW OUT OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MOST OF
THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORT WAVE WILL TRY TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AROUND THU. HOWEVER WE BELIEVE THAT IT WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT DUE TO A LACK OF A GOOD MOIST FLOW.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON MON
NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A MODERATION IN TEMPS TAKE PLACE AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVES OUT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

OVERALL MVFR CEILING PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT 11Z THIS
MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST WEST OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN MID MORNING.
THIS MAY INCREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES.
SO I HAVE VCSH GRR AND MKG AND FOR MKG I PUT TEMP SHOWERS TILL 15Z.

THIS AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE AREA SO CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP. I EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BY 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP LAKE CLOUDS OFF SHORE. TOWARD
MORNING WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHWEST SO THE CLOUDS MAY
MOVE BACK ON SHORE. I BROUGHT THEM BACK INTO MKG ONLY. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WIND GUSTS ARE JUST BELOW GALES AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ071>074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...93





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