Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 280628
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
228 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BRINGING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND BRING A SMALL CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK UNTIL A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR
RIVER VALLEYS AND LAKES.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96 WHERE THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH
OF THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

THAT FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-96
AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE VERY MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AT UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A COLD FRONT TRACKING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS ARRIVES FROM THE GULF AND A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.  PWAT VALUES
LIKELY TO CLIMB OVER 1.5 INCHES.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WET WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  I INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM.

STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ON FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
IT APPEARS THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ARRIVES FRI NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE ADDING MOISTURE TO THIS
DEEPENING WAVE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH MI.  POPS WERE ALSO RAISED FOR
THIS AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE.  A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.  THE GFS IS DIFFERENT THAN
THE OTHER MODELS IN THAT IT DOES NOT DRAW DOWN AS MUCH COOL AIR.  IF
THE HIGH RES EURO AND NAM ARE CORRECT...WE MAY STAY IN THE 50S ALL
DAY.  I DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN. HOWEVER...IT SHOULDN/T BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. UPPER CLOUD COVER SHOULD
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT. WE/LL LIKELY SEE PATCHY DENSE
FOG AT THE TAF SITES WITH VSBYS BOUNCING FROM 6+SM TO 1/4SM FG
THROUGH 12Z. FOG WILL BURN OFF LEAVING VFR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL
WAVE HEIGHTS OF A FOOT OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY MONDAY AND ONLY
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE THERE ARE NO HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.