Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 290729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
WHILE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...VSBYS MAY DROP TO AROUND
5SM -SHRA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO


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