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000
FXUS63 KGRR 241148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
648 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN MAINLY ALONG TO SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AND
FURTHER SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. IT WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THAT SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS IL/IN/OH.
HOWEVER THE NORTHERNMOST PERIPHERY OF THE LIGHT SNOW MAY JUST CLIP
OUR SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA MAINLY ALONG TO SOUTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR.

WE HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER FCST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TO SOUTH
OF I-94. JUST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW SHOULD FALL ALONG I-96
WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW NORTH OF I-96.

IN THE NEARER TERM SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER
30S. IT WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY WHEN
MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAIN IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY WEST OF US 131 AND
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL HAVE WET SNOW
WITH RATIOS AROUND 10:1 AND TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS PROBABLY IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE. SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL LOOK POSSIBLE THURSDAY
WITH SOME SLUSHY ROADS.

A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT STRONGLY SUGGESTS ANY
TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE MAINLY WEST OF US 131 AND
PARTICULARLY FROM MUSKEGON TO LUDINGTON AS A WEAK H500 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED H850 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAKENING SFC LOW TRAVERSE
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND NAM BRING AN INCH OR
LESS OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN CWA...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY
SNOWFALL OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS
WOULD POSE THE MORE INTERESTING SOLUTION WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SFC
THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT (LOW TEENS
EAST...AROUND 30 ACROSS THE LAKESHORE) AND PRETTY DECENT LIFT ACROSS
THE LOWEST 5K FT...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE DGZ. TOO MARGINAL OF A
SITUATION TO WARRANT MORE THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW EXPECTED...BUT AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT
A COUPLE INCHES FROM MKG TO LDM FROM THIS EVENT.

VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EMERGES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH
SOLID H500 SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. IT IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BE ABSORBED BY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS
H500 HEIGHTS FLATTEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. THERE LOOKS TO BE WAA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH H850 TEMPS POTENTIALLY ABOVE 0C FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AS PRECIP FALLS...H850 TEMPS GO BELOW
ZERO ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE A WET SNOWFALL. IF TEMPS ALOFT WERE
COLDER...THIS COULD BE A DECENT LAKE ENHANCED EVENT FOR WEST
MICHIGAN...BUT THE LAKE WON`T BE A PLAYER WITH H850 TEMPS FROM 0C TO
-5C. OVERALL IT APPEARS MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WOULD BE THE BIGGEST
PROBLEM WITH THIS EVENT.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF FEATURE H850 TEMPS IN THE -22C TO
-26C RANGE FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH
LOWS AT OR BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR-IFR CIGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID MORNING BASED ON UPSTREAM IR SATELLITE RETURN...ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA
INSISTS THE CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1000-1500FT.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
IFR CIGS FOR AZO/BTL/JXN. IFR CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY BEYOND 12Z
SATURDAY FOR AZO/BTL/JXN AS STEADIER LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SKIRTING
THE AREA.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

RIVER GAUGES AT MOST SITES SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING. THE MILDER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD NOT CAUSE ENOUGH SNOW MELT OR
ICE MELT TO BE A CONCERN. SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD KEEP THE ICE LOCKED UP. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING FOR ANY ICE
JAMS THAT DEVELOP... BUT SERIOUS ICE JAMS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AND RAINFALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS