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000
FXUS63 KGRR 080824
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94 THIS MORNING AS
SOME MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY BUT WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE MID 40S BY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DEAL WITH
LINGERING PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SOME
SLEET MOVING OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. HRRR
AND SREF BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST AFTER 12Z AND MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF
I-94. FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD LIGHT SNOW. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED THOUGH. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORT WAVES...WE/LL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
DECENT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSES OFF THE THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
MICHIGAN.  IF WE GOT ANY SNOW FROM THIS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS. BEYOND THAT TRANQUIL WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUR NEAR NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BUT THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ONLY TO WARM
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN STILL SHOWS A PERSISTENT EASTERN TROUGH AND
WESTERN RIDGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS SEEN FOR THAT. HOWEVER WE
WILL SEE THE NEVER ENDING PARADE OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVING OVER THE
TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST AND IN TURN THE
EASTERN CONUS.

AS FOR THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...IT IS QUESTIONABLE THAT THE SNOW
AREA FROM THE SYSTEM WILL EVEN MAKE IT NORTH INTO MICHIGAN SINCE THE
RECENT HISTORY HAS THE PACIFIC SYSTEMS ENDING UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AS THEY EXIT VIA THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. SEEMS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT. WHAT IS CURIOUS TO ME ABOUT ALL THIS IS
HOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE GFS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DETAILS OF THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION WILL WORK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT THREE HOURS...OR THROUGH 09Z OR SO. EXPECTING A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...TRENDING TOWARD ALL SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. LIGHT MVFR FOG/HAZE (3-5SM) WILL ALSO WORK
THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND ACT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
PROBABLY EVEN MORE SO THAN THE PRECIP.

CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD MVFR AFTER 08Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL PAINTING A
PESSIMISTIC MVFR CEILING PICTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THINKING WE MAY CLEAR OUT QUICKER AND STILL PLAYING THE TAFS THAT
WAY. FEEL THE MODELS ARE HANGING ON TO A BIT TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL SNOW MELT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL HELP TO SLOWLY ERODE SOME OF THE SNOW PACK AND
ICE COVER IN LOWER MICHIGAN. NO REAL RAINMAKERS OR HEAT WAVES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO LEADING TO PRETTY STABLE RIVER
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO