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000
FXUS63 KGRR 222346
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/AVIATION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH STRETCHES FROM LUDINGTON TO MADISON WI AS OF 23Z. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW DECENT CORES/UPDRAFTS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD YET.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER
IN WI. ML CAPE VALUES OF GENERALLY 1500-2000 J/KG ARE PRESENT OVER
SW LOWER. THE CAP AROUND 850-800 MB IS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT
THUS FAR. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS ML CAPE BEING MAINTAINED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE CAP ERODING OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3
HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION BECOMING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH INCREASE A BIT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVERHEAD. THE SHEAR WILL BE PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND THEN WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THEREAFTER. THE THREAT OF
WIND...HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL STILL IN PLAY INTO
MID EVENING BEFORE THEIR THREATS WILL DIMINISH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND DURING
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.-131.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

NO CHANGES TO THE THINKING OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.
DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS BUILDING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES AROUND
OR OVER 1000 J/KG AS OF 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
HOWEVER THAT A STRONG CAP AROUND 800-850 MB WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...EVEN AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP
OVER THE AREA. ALSO LIMITING CONVECTION CHCS THIS AFTERNOON IS
MESOSCALE RIDGING JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

WE WILL BE WAITING FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT NOW
MOVING INTO ERN UPPER MI AND THE GREEN BAY AREA AS EVIDENCED BY THE
ENHANCED AREA OF CU PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS NEAR THE FRONT
THAT THE CAP ERODES AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS WI MOVES IN ACROSS WRN MI THIS EVENING. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE TO BE IN PLACE /HIGHEST WEST OF U.S.-131/
AS THE FRONT...AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM SW MN
MOVES IN. THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BASED A
LITTLE BIT ABOVE OF THE SFC. THIS SCENARIO MEANS THAT EVEN AS WE
COOL OFF RIGHT AT THE SFC SOME TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...THE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ALOFT. IT ALSO MEANS THAT LAKE MICHIGAN
SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE AS IF CONVECTION WAS PURELY
SFC BASED.

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ALL SEEM TO COINCIDE WITH SOME DECENT DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 25-35 KNOTS...AND
0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE PRESENT WITH THE LLJ
AROUND...WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FAIRLY HEALTHY CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER. WE CONTINUE TO THINK AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH
0-1KM SHEAR VALES OF 20-25 KNOTS AND 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF AROUND
100-150 M2/S2. LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW STRONGER CONVECTIVE
WINDS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO REACH THE SFC. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT WITH HIGH PWATS IN PLACE.

THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO DIMINISH BY 06Z AS THE LLJ MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING
OUT AND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE ALL PCPN END BY
09-12Z WED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO BE
QUIET AND RELATIVELY COOL. WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP THROUGH IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON WED NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE NO MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH WITH A DRY NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE AND BROAD SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BEING DOWNWIND OF THE LONG WAVE RIDGE. TEMPS ON
WED AND THU WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH H850
TEMPS AROUND 9-12C.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TIMING OF CHANCES FOR RAIN (SHOWERS AND STORMS) THIS WEEKEND IS THE
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER PATTERN SWITCHES
FROM SOMEWHAT OF A FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT TUESDAY.
DETAILS IN HOW WE GET FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARE WHERE THE ISSUES LIE WITH THIS FORECAST.

THE DIFFERENCES PERTAIN TO THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND AIDES IN DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS IS
QUICKER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE IN SATURDAY...WHERE AS THE ECMWF
HOLDS THE LEAD WAVE OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS GET TO THE
SAME POINT BY TUESDAY...BUT THE WEEKEND DETAILS ARE WHAT IS IN
QUESTION. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES IN
MODELS. TEND TO FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF PROGRESSION...BUT NOT CERTAIN
IN THIS EVOLUTION. THE LEAD WAVE THAT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY SEEN SPINNING OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AT THIS
POINT IT IS ALMOST STATIONARY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS HAVE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND TO
TAKE A MIDDLE ROAD BETWEEN THE WETTER/QUICKER GFS AND THE
SLOWER/DRIER ECMWF. THE PATTERN LOOKS SHOWERY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN. HIGHS AROUND 80 THIS
WEEKEND...SLIDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE 00Z SET OF
FCSTS. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL COME DURING A PERIOD OF A COUPLE OF
HOURS FOR ANY ONE SITE IN THE FIRST 6 TO 7 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS SEEMS TO BE TAKING SHAPE JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR KLDM TO KMSN. EXTRAPOLATING THIS LINE
BRINGS IT INTO KMKG AROUND 02Z...AND THEN EXITING KJXN BY 07Z.
SOME POP UP STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. MVFR
AND SOME POSSIBLE IFR CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THESE STORMS.

A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS
DUE TO THE STORMS AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME HZ/BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE WARMER AND HUMID AIR. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT BEFORE
CUMULUS DEVELOPS LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

AS EXPECTED...WAVES CONTINUE TO RAMP UP. THE LUDINGTON BUOY IS NOW
AT 5.2 FEET WITH STIFF SOUTH WINDS. PORT SHELDON IS AT 3.3 FEET.
SO...THE ONGOING SOUTH FLOW EVENT LOOKS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY THE
CURRENT HEADLINES (SMALL CRAFT/BEACH HAZARDS IN EFFECT) NORTHERN 3
ZONES.

THE FLOW WEAKENS BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BEFORE SWITCHING NORTH AND
RAMPING UP ONCE AGAIN. HAVE ALL AREAS COVERED BY A SCA/BHS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING WAVES PUSHING INTO THE 4-7 FOOT
RANGE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH.

IN TERMS OF BEACH IMPACT TODAY/S EVENT IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE
MARINE AREA MAY BE THE HIGHER THREAT GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS...AND
THEREFORE A LARGER BEACH POPULATION. TOMORROW/S WAVES WILL BE
BIGGER BUT THE IMPACT MAY BE MITIGATED BY COOLER BEACH AIR
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN LESS FOLKS ON THE BEACH AND IN THE
WATER.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

STILL EXPECTING A FAIRLY QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION INTO
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT
GET OUT OF HAND (PRECLUDING A FLOOD THREAT) BUT STILL WITH PW VALUES
REACHING THE 1.75"-2.00" RANGE THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. OVERALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH HEAVIER STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY MORE THAN THAT. WITH RESPECT TO AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES TO OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. RIVERS ARE ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
ANY WOULD GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-071.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ037-
     043-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ847>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ844>846.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE