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000
FXUS63 KGRR 050811
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94 AND END BY THE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S FRIDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF INTO
THE 20S. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 40 DEGREES BY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINOR THIS MORNING AND DEAL WITH LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIAL BOOKENDING THE PERIOD. TWEAKED POPS A BIT TODAY BUT
OVERALL DIDN`T CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH IF ANY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SRN WISCONSIN IS
MANIFESTING ITSELF AS LIGHT SNOW AT THE SFC. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A
NARROW BAND OF 25-30DBZ EXTENDING FROM FAR NE IOWA TO NEAR MADISON
WISCONSIN. THE EASTERN EDGE HAS BEEN ERODING MUCH OF THE NIGHT DUE
TO DRY NORTHEAST AIR BEING FUNNELED INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW MUCH SUPPORT FOR TOTAL SATURATION ACROSS THE
CWA AND SO WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH SNOW. I DO BELIEVE WE/LL
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-94 WITH A SHORT
PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOW POSSIBLE BETWEEN I-96 AND I-94. ANY ACCUMS
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND SO THE SNOW SHOULD END BY THE
AFTERNOON.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
WARMER THAN WE`VE SEEN LATELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIVERSITY IN SOLUTIONS...
RESULTING IN LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE. OPTED TO REMAIN WITH THE
GOING FORECAST... WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION. ONLY MINOR
TWEEKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS.

THE GFS WOULD BUILD IN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT... AS SNOW WINDS DOWN BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE.
ANOTHER WAVE WOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT. A THIRD WAVE WOULD BRING SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE... THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THE SECOND
AND THIRD WAVES... AND MOVES THEM BY TO THE NORTH WITH NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN OF LATE WITH HIGHS MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY BEING ABOVE FREEZING. THE LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARMER
WITH VALUES IN THE 20S MORE PREVALENT THAN VALUES IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

UPSTREAM SNOW OVER MN/IA/WI WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
GRAZE SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND DAYBREAK. BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAZO AND KBTL. EXPECTING
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOW DURING THIS TIME AT KAZO AND
KBTL. OTHERWISE...THE SNOW SHOULD MISS THE OTHER TAF SITES OR
RESULT IN FLURRIES.

MAIN ITEM THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE SOME PROBLEMATIC MVFR CEILINGS
WITH BASES AROUND 2500FT. MODEL RH FORECASTS SHOW THESE CEILINGS
SOMEWHAT IN AND OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA DECIDED TO GO OPTIMISTIC AND CARRY
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE AND LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED IN RECENT DAYS. STABLE
RIVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SOME LOSS OF SWE
IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO