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000
FXUS63 KGRR 201755
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
155 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG
WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL MODERATING TREND OF TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIR WX WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CONTINUED GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IT
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE HUMID MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S. MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 80S AND MID 80S ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE MARK.

WE WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER OUR NW FCST AREA
NW OF KGRR. THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER A
CONSENSUS OF ALL THE LATEST SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE BETTER CHC FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE TREND WITH THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN QUICKER
WITH THE  PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
REDUCES THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.  EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ONLY FEATURE TO NOTE THIS AFTERNOON IS A BAND OF CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE MID PORTION OF THE STATE. THESE ARE AFFECTING ALL OF THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT KGRR AND KMKG. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALL VFR AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. LAKE BREEZES ARE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LAKESHORE.

ONLY A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVERHEAD. WE WILL NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE
TODAY/TONIGHT...SO FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOW LIKE LAST NIGHT. WE
DID ADD SOME FOG IN AT KJXN AS THEY ARE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED
AND HAVE THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY SOME CUMULUS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON MON. WINDS WILL START TO
PICK UP FROM THE S/SW...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS UNDER 2
FEET. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO RAIN IN
THE FCST UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. RIVER LEVELS/FLOWS RANGE FROM
NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE IN THE PROCESS
OF COMING DOWN WITH DRY WEATHER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAPLE
RAPIDS IS THE ONLY FLOOD ADVISORY OUT YET. THIS IS JUST BARELY ABOVE
BANKFULL STAGE...AND SHOULD DROP BELOW IT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...LAURENS