Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 182340
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGHS 55 TO 60 ARE EXPECTED
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO TO
THE STATE AND WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DISSIPATION CONTINUE. AS WINDS
DIMINISH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WITH THAT
IN MIND WE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES.

SKIES WILL START OFF SUNNY TOMORROW...BUT A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN CHALLENGE
DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT OF
THIS LARGE SYSTEM...HERE IN MICHIGAN WE WILL SEE A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE CONDITIONS DRY.  A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WAVE IS SHOWN TO FALL APART AS IT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.  FOR
NOW I WILL KEEP IT DRY..BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

EARLY ON THE TEMPERATURES LOOK BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS WHEN THE 925 MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ON THURSDAY WITH SOME SUN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS SHOWN OVER AREA ON FRIDAY.  ASSUMING THE
TIMING IS CORRECT...THIS WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CLOUDS ARE CLEARING SOUTH AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS NOT A
COMPLETELY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST. THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD
PRESS SOUTH OF THE I94 TAF SITES AROUND 100Z-130Z. AT THAT
POINT...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OFF OF THE LAKES TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE STRATOCUMULUS WITH
BASES IN THE MVFR LAYER...2000-3000FT. FEELING IS THIS EVENING
WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING JUST OFF TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. LAKE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
POUR DOWN THE LAKE AS WELL...REMAINING WEST OF KMKG.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WHEN THE FLOW TURNS WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A BAND OF
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES BY THE WIND. DECIDED TO TIME THESE CLOUDS THROUGH
ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KJXN. SO...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 16Z OR SO ON SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND...ESPECIALLY AT KMKG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...93





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