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000
FXUS63 KGRR 212029
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER MOVES AWAY. GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS THEY PIVOT ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. ELONGATED SFC LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND IS MOVING EAST. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN
FORCING WILL ALSO BE TRANSLATING EAST THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES NORTHWEST AND LAKE ENHANCED BANDS
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAKE MOVE ONSHORE. THESE SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BLO 5 KFT WHEN THE SNOW MOVES
ONSHORE.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TRACKS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT BUT AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE LONG TERM IS A CLIPPER THAT WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. IT
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT BUT MAY BE PLOWABLE WITH 2-4
INCHES ACCUMULATION.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM NORTHERN LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE CLIPPER WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SUNDAY. IT/S
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED HIGHER ACCUMS WITH THAT SYSTEM BY
LATE SUNDAY.

WE/LL HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF MAINLY DRY WX AFTER THAT BEFORE
ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW
THAT SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. AFTER
THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WE/LL SEE HIGHS IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

A SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT SHOW IS
DIMINISHING BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTTHWEST BY THU
AM BUT REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

THE ONLY CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE ICE JAM POTENTIAL AROUND THE
AREA. MILD WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW
SOME ICE TO BREAK UP AND START TO MOVE. IT APPEARS ICE IS AFFECTING
THE GAGE AT EVART...BUT NO OTHER SPECIFIC CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

OTHER THAN ICE JAMS...WE EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUN OFF
INTO THE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD
PERIOD LATE NEXT WEEK THAT COULD HELP TO INCREASE ICE FORMATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...NJJ