Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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305
FXUS63 KGRR 192013
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
315 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

A high pressure ridge will build in and bring fair weather tonight
through Monday. However it will become breezy Monday through
Monday night out ahead of an approaching clipper system. The
clipper system will bring a few light rain showers Tuesday that
will change over to light snow showers and flurries late Tuesday
through Tuesday night. Tranquil weather will return for mid to
late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Short term fcst concerns are fairly minimal with a rather tranquil
wx pattern developing for the upcoming week. Any lingering
flurries late this afternoon will taper off early this evening as
weak ridging builds in.

The ridge will bring fair wx late tonight through Monday night
but it will become very breezy Monday as strong sw winds develop
ahead of the approaching clipper system.

The clipper will bring a few light rain showers Tuesday followed
by light snow showers and flurries after fropa as nw flow caa
occurs. Only a dusting of snow to no snow accumulation at all is
anticipated given low inversion heights and lack of deeper moisture.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

A couple clippers move across southern Canada in the extended with
the usual model timing differences in such a fast flow regime. The
only targets of opportunity aimed at were to add some light lake
enhanced snow showers Wednesday morning before the DGZ dries out and
inversion heights crash below 5 kft AGL...and to lower POPS Friday
night as best lift and deeper moisture remain well north of Lower
Michigan, with only a period of light warm air advection precip
expected.

We have left Thursday dry for now but will have to watch a weak
clipper`s trailing cold front moving through during the afternoon or
evening which could bring some light snow or mix to the northern
zones.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

A few areas of ceilings around 2500 feet with light snow showers
will persist until about 20Z then move out with VFR conditions
prevailing tonight and Monday. Northwest winds will gust to 20
knots at times today. Winds will go southwest on Monday with some
gusts close to 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

The small craft advisory remains in effect through mid afternoon
Monday. In addition a gale watch has been issued for late Monday
afternoon through late Tuesday afternoon as winds and waves will
ramp up out ahead of a clipper system Monday night and after the
clipper moves through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1145 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Numerous streams and rivers across the southern half of Lower
Michigan will continue to show the affects of Friday`s and
Saturday`s rainfall. Rises are expected through the weekend before
rivers stabilize next week.

A quieter pattern is forecast through the Thanksgiving Day
period. Given current forecasts and river trends, all sites should
remain below flood criteria. Impacts are expected to remain minor
and immediately along streams and rivers.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for
     LMZ844>849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Laurens



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