Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 231129
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
729 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather then rain
will move in tonight as the high moves east and low pressure
slowly moves towards Lower Michigan. The rain will persist
through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Forecast issues include timing of precip this evening and p type
across the northeast interior. Dry wedge persists into this
evening as warm advection begins, so the POPS for this evening
were lowered. Expect scattered showers to arrive by 03Z as warm
advection increases with a few elevated thunderstorms possible as
lapse rates steepen. Left thunder out of the forecast for now but
isolated thunder may need to be added between 03z and 08Z.

Given the low dew points this evening, kept mention of freezing
rain across the NE zones where temps are most likely to wet bulb
down below freezing at the outset of the precip. Dew points come
up quickly in strong southerly flow, so do not expect any
persistent FZRA or impacts to travel.

The front is across the northern tier during much of Friday with
potential for strong north-south temperature gradient especially
if southern zones are able to clear out during the afternoon.
Front sags south on Saturday with more clouds and higher chances
for rain and cooler temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A showery and unsettled weather pattern will continue Sunday into
early next week. A low pressure system will continue to move slowly
northeast across the lower Great Lakes region Saturday night through
Sunday and bring occasional rain showers. High temperatures Sunday
should reach into the 50`s in spite of extensive cloud cover and
showers.

The wx pattern will remain unsettled as another low pressure system
over the Arklatex region on Monday moves northeast and brings our
area more showers Monday night into early Tuesday.

Fair weather should finally return Tuesday night through Wednesday
as northerly winds behind that system advect a cooler and drier
airmass in and a sfc high pressure ridge builds in from the
northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 729 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected to continue in to the evening then
scattered rain and some lower ceilings will move in by midnight
with areas of MVFR persisting after midnight. East to southeast
winds around 10 knots will continue today and tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Have issued a SCA for today north of Whitehall where waves will be
3 to 5 feet.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

An active weather pattern starting Thursday night and potentially
lasting through next week will provide multiple episodes of at least
light rain, and occasional periods of heavier rain. Thursday night
through Sunday, rainfall totals between 0.75 and 1.5 inches will
likely fall over the area, with the higher-end amounts currently
favored north toward the upper Muskegon river basin. River levels
will likely rise as a result. Some rivers may eventually climb back
to bankfull next week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...Ostuno



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