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000
FXUS63 KGRR 060451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO FEED COLD AND
DRY AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT. WENT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT GIVEN CLEAR
SKIES...DEEP SNOW AND VERY LOW DEW POINTS.

THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WENT WITH MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND THINKING THAT
THICKER CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO ADD CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SNOW AS THE P-TYPE WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. ANY
ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH. FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TEMPS WILL UNDERGO A MODERATING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING WELL
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN AS A
COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW SO FAR OUT IN TIME AND 12Z GFS
GUIDANCE HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

GENERALLY QUIET FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE SEEN ONLY A FEW IFR REPORTS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WON`T BE AS
ROBUST AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MI...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. DID MENTION SCT015 TO SUGGEST
THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS COULD TRY TO MOVE THROUGH BY 00Z OR
SO...BUT THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2014

CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE AND LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED IN RECENT DAYS. STABLE
RIVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SOME LOSS OF SWE
IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO