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000
FXUS63 KGRR 051750
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1250 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER WILL RELAX ITS GRIP ON WEST MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
TODAY WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. A WARM UP WILL
START FRIDAY THAT WILL CARRY INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGHS REACH THE MID
40S. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO TRIM POPS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE TODAY.

THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT GREAT...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO
EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO WEST MICHIGAN AND WILL HELP TO
KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A SHSN...BUT NOTHING
ORGANIZED EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE COLD. HIGHS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED
AS H8 TEMPS IN THE LOWER -20S MOVE ACROSS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY. SO ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER...APPARENT TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHSN
EITHER AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. SCT SHSN WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. SATURDAY COULD FEEL DOWNRIGHT
BALMY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A WEAK CLIPPER COMING THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME
SLIPPERY ROADS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MILDER WEATHER
FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FLOW GOES
ZONAL AND THE POLAR JET RETREATS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TO SOUTHERN
CANADA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CURRENTLY SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT
MKG WHICH HAS A VFR CIG AND HAS HAS FEW FLURRIES. I EXPECT WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AT THE SURFACE THE SNOW BAND OVER THE LAKE
WILL MOVE INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING AND IMPACT THE MKG TAF SITE IN
THE 2 PM TO 6 PM TIME FRAME. I WOULD EXPECT SOME IFR VSBY WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS THERE. I DO NOT THINK THESE WILL MAKE IT TO GRR SO I
DID NOT INCLUDE THEM AT GRR.

AS FOR THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW BAND...THEY WILL MOVE
INLAND LIKE THE SNOW BAND ITSELF WILL BUT WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND THAT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS (MVFR / VFR CEILINGS) FROM MKG NORTH AND NORTHEAST. I DID
BRING SOME VFR CIGS INTO THE GRR TAF SITE WITH A FEW FLURRIES
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE I HAVE CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE OTHER TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 11-17. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW