Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 272335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
735 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016


Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Showers are moving out of Michigan late this afternoon and a weak
cold front will wash out across southern Lower Michigan tonight.
Humid weather will continue into the middle of next week and
temperatures will remain above normal. Chances for additional
showers and thunderstorms are low through mid week.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Forecast concerns deal with pcpn chances tonight and potential for

Latest radar loop continues to show pcpn moving away from the cwa as
a wave of low pressure moves over Lake Michigan enroute toward
northern Lower. The upper trough driving the low will remain north
of Lake Superior and not have much if any influence on the weather
across the cwa. The upper flow from the southwest will continue to
push minor short waves across the cwa and so we`ll have low chance
pops to account for them. The trailing cold front, if you want to
call it a front, will wash out over the southern cwa tonight leaving
high dewpoints in the mid 60s across the cwa. The humid weather will
continue into next week. Given the copious rainfall earlier today
across much of the cwa, any clearing tonight could lead to some fog
so we added patchy fog to the grids tonight and Sunday night. Other
than a slight chance of a shower tonight, mainly dry weather is
expected through Monday night. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the lower to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Tuesday will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a
shortwave trough amplifies with a closed low and sfc cyclone moving
across central Canada and trailing cold front traversing the Great
Lakes. The trough axis shifts east with sfc and upper ridging
bringing generally fair weather Wednesday through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

It would seem IRF will rule overnight. Currently we have an area
of mvfr cigs on the warm front pushing north through the CWA. I
tried to time this through the taf sites over the next few hours.
After that we should have a period of VFR conditions with the
threat of showers on the cold front (rather weak). A thunderstorms
is not out of the question. After that I expect light winds and
all that rain today to lead to fog at most of the taf sites by 09z
or so. This should all mix out by mid morning and by early
afternoon most areas should be sunny.


Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

High pressure moving over the lake will result in winds aob 10 knots
and waves less than 2 feet through Sunday.


Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

The Portage River at Vicksburg fell to just below flood stage this
morning. However with locally over an inch of rain possible through
tonight, the river level is expected to rebound to just above flood
stage this weekend and then slowly fall. No other locations are
currently near flood stage.


.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Ostuno
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