Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 272134
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
334 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE STATE
TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT LATE. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE TEMPERATURE DROP SOME TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WILL STILL BE VERY
COLD IN MOST SITES. BEGIN TO HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...THEREFORE HAVE A BIT OF A NON-DIURNAL TREND ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTH. TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS MAY STEADY OR SLIGHTLY WARM LATE
TONIGHT DUE TO THE SHIFT IN WINDS AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER
STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE SFC PRES GRADIENT BEING A LITTLE TIGHTER. THEREFORE WILL SEE
WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW RANGE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

OVER ALL THINKING OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS CHANGED LITTLE. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE PULLING OUT ON SUNDAY. AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL. BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO A POINT AND THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AS THE BAROCLINIC RIBBON IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ALL PRECIP WILL BE IN SOLID FORM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ONE CARRYING MORE MOISTURE AND IS BETTER
ORGANIZED. FORCING IS BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. OTHER THAN
THE 06Z GFS RUN...THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY WITH THE NORTHWARD
PUSH OF THE WARM AIR. A MIXED BAG OVER THE SOUTH HALF WITH PRECIP
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL NORTH OF THE TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN IA. WILL MENTION THAT WITH AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF ACCUM
POSSIBLE. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS MAY WELL NEED TO BE MADE FOR THE
WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING 30 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE...WHICH IS REALISTIC IF THE LOW DEEPENS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS QUITE. A SHARP PUSH OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SECOND STORM...BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WARM AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY. MAIN ISSUE THAT COULD BRING BRIEF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WOULD
BE IF GET ENOUGH ICE CRYSTALS IN THE AIR AGAIN FOR SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LIKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD CREATE
AREAS OF CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WITH SCT008-011 IN
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...BEERENDS


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