Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 281130
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT TO SEE A
LITTLE MORE SOLAR INSULATION TODAY AND WILL GO A SHADE WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS TODAY IN SPITE OF THE H8 TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT THE
SAME. A QUIET WEATHER DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPS
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE AUG THAN LATE SEP.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES WERE THE MAIN FOCUS
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TIMING OF PRECIP MID-WEEK AND
UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANED
TOWARD A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MAV FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BOTH DAYS. A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PROVIDES ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO POTENTIALLY SPAWN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z
TUESDAY OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY EVENING AND TRANSITION
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING BUT DRAGS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND SLOWER WITH THE
PRECIP INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND DELAYED THE MAJORITY OF THE POPS
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 500MB DEEP TROUGH PUSH ACROSS THE STATE
BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE DEEP TROUGH ITSELF FINALLY
PUSHES EAST BY FRIDAY. HIGHEST POPS CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HAVE LINGERING POPS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW
WITHIN THE CAA REGIME ON FRIDAY. MAINLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED. MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE AND BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SEVERAL LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 30S FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT BY 15Z. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON MORNING.

OUTLOOK..VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME FOG AROUND
SUNRISE AGAIN TUESDAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUE AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...MS



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