Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 181743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SLOWLY INCREASES.  STILL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF WIND OVER MOST OF THE CWA.  WILL SEE SOME 20 TO 25 MPH
GUSTS IN THE NORTHWEST.  TEMPS AT H8 INCREASE 1 TO 2 DEGREES TODAY
OVER THOSE OF YESTERDAY.  IN SPITE OF THAT...THE OFF SETTING FACTOR
WILL BE THE SMOKE LAYER THAT HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED THAT WELL.
THE SMOKE IS FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL...BUT NONE THE LESS WILL REDUCE SOLAR
INSOLATION AND WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH MORE
THAN YESTERDAY IN SPITE OF THE WARMING AT H8.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED THEN IT LOOKED
YESTERDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AND MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL NOT BE MUCH TO
SPEAK OF BUT WE HAD NO POPS GOING BEFORE. SO THIS IS A SMALL
ADJUSTMENT. THEN A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY I LEFT SATURDAY NIGHT
DRY YOU COULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE WAVE WHILE THE EURO...CANADIAN AND SREF ALL
KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED
AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS OCCUR TO SEE IF THEY BRING THE WAVE
FURTHER SOUTH OR DEEPEN IT ANY. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER YET ANOTHER RIDGE-
RIDER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIP WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT JUST TO THE NORTH.
FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED AT
LEAST SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
ANTICIPATED LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE I HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

WE CONTINUE TO GET TEASED WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVES RIDING THE RIDGE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE FINALLY SWINGS
ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR
BEST DURING THIS PERIOD AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS FOR STORMS. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL DURING THIS TIME THOUGH ALOFT SHEAR IS
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. THE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS FOR
TEMPS THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE EURO IN RESPONSE TO
THE EURO HAVING THAT STRONGER WAVE COME THROUGH. THE EURO HAS
WARMEST TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH 90 BEING REACHED THEN THE REALLY DROP
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS 90S GOING UNTIL MID WEEK AND ONLY A SLIGHT COOL OFF
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS DRY ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE
WIT THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AND A WARM WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS ON TAP AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IS EXPECTED ONCE MORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ALTHOUGH ANY CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
A WIDESPREAD CLOUD FIELD IN NEBRASKA IS ALSO ENTERING WESTERN IOWA
AND MAY AFFECT KFOD LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH
DISSIPATE THIS WITH TIME WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEPING HIGHER
RH VALUES ABOVE 3-4KFT...THEREFORE DONT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS SEEN IN KS AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT GOOD DECOUPLING THIS EVENING
SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OF AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS JUL 14
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL


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