Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 192322
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
622 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT
AFTER WINDS DIMINISH BEFORE SUNSET. NICE LOBE OF FAIRLY DEEP FORCING
NOTED BY DPVA AND THETA-E ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED WSW-ENE ORIENTED
BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED HOWEVER SO THERE
HAS BEEN NO PRECIPITATION...NOT EVEN MUCH VIRGA.  PARENT SHORT
WAVE/PV ANOMALY OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL DIVE INTO WI BY 06Z
INCREASING KINEMATIC FORCING LATER THIS EVENING.  LIFT WILL MAINLY
BE MID LEVEL /3-6KM/ HOWEVER WITH NEUTRAL LIFT TO SUBSIDENCE BELOW
AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY. SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING NWLY BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY AIRMASS CHANGE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK BEHIND
SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRIMARILY DRY AND
CALM THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE MAIN FOCUS. HAVE
DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS FLOW
SHIFTS TO NORTHWESTERLY...COOLER TEMPS WILL WORK IN...BEFORE RIDGE
PUSHES EAST AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNS. WILL SEE GOOD
MIXING...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUING TO PULL FURTHER EAST. HAVE THEREFORE EXPANDED
AND INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FORCING IS
NOT VERY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGH. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP SATURATION...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
1 INCH ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...AND HIGHER TO THE WEST WHICH IS
SEASONALLY HIGH. THEREFORE...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST MEETING DRY AIR
OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND THEREFORE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND IF PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...HAVE
INTRODUCED THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...THOUGH WILL BE ISOLATED...AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

BEHIND SYSTEM...LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR END OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN...AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN WAA AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKC AND NO
OBSCURATIONS. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
THE WINDS AROUND TO NNW BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE


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