Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 191139
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINANT OVER THE AREAS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS RETREATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING
TO CLIMB SLOWLY. DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE SMALL
COMPLEX OVER MN AND WITH CORFIDI VECTORS FAVOR THE SOUTHWARD DRIFT
AND WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATE POP OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. WILL NOT DO ANYTHING MAJOR ON
TEMPS TODAY. SMOKE LAYER THINNED CONSIDERABLY YESTERDAY AND MAKES
IT A GOOD DAY TO FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE IDEA OF WARMING AND
GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH HEAT BUILDING INTO THE STATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD A NAM12/SREF BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THEN MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. MAY
SEE WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
THE CAP IS WEAKEST AND LOCATION OF THE BEST THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS MINNESOTA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WAA AND MOISTURE INCREASES AS 850MB TEMPS
RISE TO +24C TO +26C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE...SO TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS RISE INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S LEADING
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS
TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MONDAY EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
BELIEVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO DROP POPS AFTER 12Z WITH ECMWF/GFS
TRENDING THAT WAY. MAY SEE ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT BY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECENT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO
BRING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WITH SCATTERED CU DURING THE DAY WITH CIRRUS ABOVE. MAY
SEE PATCHY GROUND FOG SUN MORNING...BUT THINKING IS THAT IT ISN`T
LIKELY TO WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN INTO MON WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS JUL 14
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...MS JUL 14



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