Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 292346
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
644 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD COVER HORRIBLY AND
CONSEQUENTLY ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING SO I
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO STAY/REDEVELOP OVER TAF LOCATIONS AND I KEEP
THE FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN.  LOWER LEVELS FINALLY LOSE
THE MOISTURE AFT 18Z SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN TOMORROW...AFT 18Z.
SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN BECOME S TO SE AFT 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...FAB



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