Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 301736
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE TODAY WITH WEAK RIDGE PASSING
OVER IA THIS EVENING. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH IA MON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE EAST IN THE MORNING HOURS. SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST...BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY FOR CENTRAL IOWA TODAY. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IN THE WEST WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL HELP LIMIT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG MENTION OUT
ATTM...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO GIVEN AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE HAVE KEPT CLOUDS A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK IN AND WILL SEE
CLEARING. WAA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS NEAR GOING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION SETS IN TONIGHT AND DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
OVER THAT FOR LATE TONIGHT AS LLJ BEGINS TO PICK UP. WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE LATER FORECASTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS
PACKAGE WILL BE LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND DECENT DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. FEEL THE WINDOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
NARROW WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...AND THE K INDEX EXCEEDING 40.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PAT OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT FRI OR SAT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THOUGH IT
IS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BECOMING MORE CELLULAR. THE STATUS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...DONAVON



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