Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 250449
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1149 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NWRN IA...BUT WILL ONLY MAKE VERY SLOW
PROGRESS TO THE EAST TONIGHT.  EXPECT TO SEE IT MAKE IT ABOUT HALF
WAY THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN. LITTLE
TO REALLY FOCUS ON FOR FORCING TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ACT ON ONCE THE LLJ GETS GOING TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA IN VICINITY OF AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI/FAR SOUTHERN IOWA EARLY MONDAY WHILE A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TIED TO A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CANADA WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BREAK OUT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OR WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ALOFT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES SWEEPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP AT TIMES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PERIOD FOR
HEAVY RAIN THOUGH IT REALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ANY ONE
PERIOD. THERE WASN`T ANY LARGE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE NOW TAKING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK AND DIGGING IT FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWING IT DOWN. SO
THIS WILL PROLONG AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST EVEN INTO FRIDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY AROUND SO THE
RISK OF A STORM PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE
CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY DEPENDING ON WHERE ITS STORMING...CLOUD
COVER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION. IT WILL FINALLY BE COOLER CWA
WIDE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY IN WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-
CENTRAL WILL AFFECT MCW/FOD AND LIKELY ALO THROUGH 09Z. LOWER
CONFIDENCE CONVECTION WILL TRICKLE AS FAR SOUTH AS DSM AND
OTM...BUT KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...PODRAZIK


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