Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 190452
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1152 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Large area of high pressure in place across the region and is
expected to continue to slide off to the southeast tonight. An
extensive CU field has developed to the west of the ridge axis
where winds have become more southerly aloft. Southerly return
flow to remain in place through the night and with waa expected.
Therefore expect overnight lows to be a bit warmer than in the
previous night. Coolest temps in the low 40s across the east,
closer to the sfc ridge axis. Have some increase in cloud cover
possible across the west with push of waa/theta-e advection aloft
overnight.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Wednesday/
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Still looking for pattern change from late this week into early
next weekend as western trof develops this weekend. Will continue
to see relatively little sensible weather for the next few days
with back edge of thermal trof remaining just northeast of
forecast area. This will keep temperatures below normal through
the end of the work week. Models have continued to suggest the
threat of isolated showers in the far west on Thursday where warm
advection will be increasing along with a narrow corridor of
moisture transport but this is likely to stay west of the forecast
area. Somewhat similar setup on Friday as well but with slightly
more forcing, may see the showers extend into the far west by
afternoon and have continued the slight chance during that time.
The weather will be quiet through the weekend as southerly flow
strengthens with the deepening of the western trof.

Southwest flow will be the rule into next week over Iowa with
quasi-permanent western trof during the week. As typical for this
time of year, such flow means warmer temperatures, more moisture
and the threat of thunderstorms. Timing of thunderstorms/highest
threats remains dubious this far out but will become more refined
as the week approaches. However, severe convection appears a good
possibility at some point next week and this will be monitored
closely to enhance details as they become more apparent.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Little change to previous forecast. Potential for fog has
diminished though localized fog late may occur. Otherwise sct
clouds generally in the 5 to 8 kft range still expected. May
become bkn for a bit especially over northwest IA. Light winds
tonight become more breezy from the south/southeast.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Cogil
AVIATION...Donavon



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