Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 261111
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
609 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES. ONGOING ELEVATED PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING SEWD.
FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF ISOLD TO
SCATTERED PRECIP GOING MUCH OF THE DAY. A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN NOTED IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SE SOUTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS BORDERLINE FOR TSRA THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. WOULD EXPECT ISOLD THUNDER AT WORST THOUGH.
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT A CONCERN GIVEN THE LOWER PWAT VALUES IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE CWA.

SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH ENOUGH
UPPER AIR SUPPORT REMAINING TO HELP FACILITATE SHRA/TSRA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THESE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ACHIEVED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL CWA
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WHILE SEVERE WX IS NOT
EXPECTED...FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER ALONG WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 10 TO 11 KFT SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS DIME SIZE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT
IN PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND BECOME ENGULFED BY THE HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW AND WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK WILL BE A FACTOR FOR THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SYSTEM...SHIFTING IT INTO WESTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. FAVOR THE DELAYED GFS
AND GEM SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPPER LOW HANGING BACK OVER THE ALASKAN
GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFYING IN
RESPONSE WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF SEASONABLY COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY
LINGER BEYOND 00Z. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

SCT SHRA...WITH SOME TSRA...WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB


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