Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 290441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC LOW STILL HAS SHIFTED TO SCEN IA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH 12Z.  LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.  MAIN CONCERN OVER IS IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND FOG POTENTIAL WITH HALF MILE VSBYS AND LOCALLY A QUARTER OR
LESS VSBY POSSIBLE.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THROUGH
LATE MORNING.  A COUPLE MODELS HINT AT THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING
STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING MAINLY AFFECTING KOTM BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AT THIS POINT IS LOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB


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