Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 170450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE...REFLECTION OF THE MCV THAT DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE CWA TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.  WITH NO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR AIRMASS CHANGE...NOTHING TO REALLY SCOUR OUT THE
MOISTURE.  EXPECT TO SEE WIDE SPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT TONIGHT
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.  SOME QUESTION OVER THE FAR SOUTH DUE TO
THICKER HIGHER CLOUDS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN.  THINKING AT THIS TIME
IS VSBY WILL FALL BELOW A MILE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AFFECT WEATHER FOR
BEGINNING OF EXTENDED. AS BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PUSHES SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY ONGOING AT ONSET OF EXTENDED.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH SYSTEM GETS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...WITH MODELS KEEPING BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MINNESOTA. THOUGH WITH WAVE SET TO TRACK NEAR MN/IA BOARDER HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS SECONDARY BOUNDARY
APPROACHES...THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO IOWA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS TO THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS THE
WEST. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGENT...AND ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IF STORMS DEVELOP. AS MENTIONED...BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
HAVE KEPT TIMING NEAR GOING...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
COMING MONDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND OR UNDER 1.5
INCHES AND MAY SEE CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE MAXIMIZED IN THE WEST...AND DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF SYSTEM...COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EAST...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN BRIEFLY BEFORE ANOTHER BOUNDARY PUSHES
IN FOR WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN...AND HAVE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS LARGE RIDGE IS SET
TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR END OF EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...WITH SHARPLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR END
OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...17/06Z
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

QUITE COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH RESTRICTIONS TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AFTER SUNRISE
ON SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TO BURN OFF
ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME
THREAT OF CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA WITH SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE
AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL


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