Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 261751
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1251 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES. ONGOING ELEVATED PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
SEWD. FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED PRECIP GOING MUCH OF THE DAY. A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SE SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS BORDERLINE FOR TSRA THIS
MORNING...WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. WOULD EXPECT
ISOLD THUNDER AT WORST THOUGH. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT A CONCERN GIVEN
THE LOWER PWAT VALUES IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE
BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA.

SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH ENOUGH
UPPER AIR SUPPORT REMAINING TO HELP FACILITATE SHRA/TSRA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THESE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ACHIEVED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL CWA
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WHILE SEVERE WX IS NOT
EXPECTED...FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER ALONG
WITH FREEZING LEVELS OF 10 TO 11 KFT SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS DIME SIZE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
RESULT IN PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND BECOME ENGULFED BY THE
HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW AND WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT WAVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE A FACTOR FOR THE REGION. THE ECMWF
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...SHIFTING IT INTO WESTERN
CANADA BY THURSDAY AND BEGINS TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
EAST. FAVOR THE DELAYED GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPPER LOW
HANGING BACK OVER THE ALASKAN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF
SEASONABLY COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY
LINGER BEYOND 00Z. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS TO AFFECT DSM AND OTM THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS STRATUS IS SHIFTING SOUTH. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BUT LOOKS TO BE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TO MITIGATE
ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



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