Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 242218
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
418 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT. A
COOL MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...A BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE
ERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE PACNW STATES THIS AFTERNOON. A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS
WITH THIS TROF IS PUSHING INTO THE NWRN CWA AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
WRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS IT CROSSES
THE CWA TONIGHT.

THIS WEAK FRONT DOES COOL THE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW LEVELS
WILL ONLY LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FT NORTH AND 8000 FT SOUTH WITH
ONLY MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHEST PASSES.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE BASE
OF THE MAIN TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DRAG THE ENTIRE TROF INLAND
TONIGHT THRU SAT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH THRU SAT NIGHT
WITH THE TROF SPLITTING AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF
THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY MIDDAY SUN. THE INCREASING TROF DYNAMICS
OVER OUR CWA KEEP SHOWERS ACTIVE ON SAT WITH A BROAD AREA OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS
THE MAIN UPPER COLD POOL ARRIVES.

THIS COLD POOL MODIFIES QUITE A BIT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA SO
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 6000 FT OR MAYBE EVEN HIGHER. SNOW
AMOUNTS ABOVE THAT SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER AND COULD IMPACT
TRAVEL OVER ALL MOUNTAIN PASSES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT AND ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD LIKELY BE
ISSUED EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

PRECIP WINDS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTN AS THE CLOSED LOW
DRIFTS INTO NWRN NEW MEXICO...WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE NERN MTNS AND SWRN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE EC AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT BOTH HOLD
ONTO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE HELD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN THESE AREAS
INTO MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. HOWEVER HAVE BACKED OFF BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON THE WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AND TYPICALLY WE DO NOT WARM AS RAPIDLY
UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES TO WARM TO
THE HIGHEST LEVELS SO FAR THIS YEAR. IF THEY DO NOT REACH THE PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY THEY SHOULD REACH A PEAK ON THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
SOME AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE EC AND GFS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE NOT
VERY HIGH.

LEFT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DUE TO THE MID LEVELS SHOWING SOME MOISTENING BUT AGAIN ITS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL INTO
THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 03-04Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OUTFLOWS FROM SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH 01Z...WITH THE PRIMARY
DIRECTION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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