Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 281134
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND PERSIST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING INTO
UT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING THRU THE RIDGE
AND ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND SHOULD THIN OUT THRU THE DAY ALLOWING THE SUN TO REACH THE
SURFACE.

SUN PLUS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS
SHOULD COMBINE TO SEND MAX TEMPS TO POSSIBLY THEIR WARMEST LEVELS
THIS WEEK. AT LEAST ACROSS THE MTNS AND WESTERN VALLEYS. MIXING IN
THE ERN VALLEYS LOOKS TO BE LESS AND INVERSIONS THERE MAY NOT
BREAK.

THE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT AND CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AGAIN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO
THE PACNW. THIS WAVE SWINGS EWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES SAT THRU SUN
BUT DOES SEND A COLD FRONT INTO UT BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT
NIGHT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL UT BY SUN EVE
THE RETREATS NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATER SUN NIGHT THRU MON.

ALL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY STARTING SUN
AND LINGERING INTO MON WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUN AFTN/EVE. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW
LEVELS TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS THE FAR N AND HAVE
INDICATED A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE LOGAN AREA BUT KEPT PRECIP AS
RAIN FARTHER S. DONT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN LIGHT
AMOUNTS OFF PAVEMENT SURFACES IF THAT. THE NRN WASATCH MTNS COULD
SEE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW BUT EXPECT ONLY MINOR IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE SRN EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE NOT FAR SOUTH OF
PROVO WITH SRN UT REMAINING DRY AND MILD. THE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON MON AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NWD.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS IN NORTHERN
UTAH...THOUGH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS THAN THE
GFS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE
ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF ADVANCING A
PACIFIC TROUGH EASTWARD. THE GFS TRAJECTS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE INTO
UTAH ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...SUGGESTING A MODICUM OF
PRECIP IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH MODELS MOVE AN OPEN WAVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFER THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP STATEWIDE.
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE -4 TO -6 CELSIUS
RANGE...CONTINUING P-TYPE AS VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW.


&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 14Z...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY 13Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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