Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 242140
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...A FAIRLY COLD TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WITH
-20C 500 MB TEMPERATURES RECORDED NEAR SPOKANE WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM
UTAH COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK.
WHILE A LARGE COOLDOWN IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS UTAH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH...CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED...WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CAPITOL REEF NATIONAL PARK AREA AS WELL AS THE
BOOKCLIFFS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS
WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. CELLS HAVE BEEN TRAINING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CAPITOL REEF...SO ANYONE TRAVELING
IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE GFS BEGINS TO CREEP MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT MEAGER.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH...PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF
CONVECTION. COVERAGE IS AGAIN QUESTIONABLE...BUT INCREASED POPS
OVER FRIDAYS VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ENHANCED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. EXPECT THE TYPICAL END OF
JULY PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE A
MONSOONAL SURGE FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. GFS CONTINUES TO
BE MORE BULLISH COMPARED TO THE EC...SHOWING PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.3 INCH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE. LATEST EC RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
WETTER...AND THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE OVERALL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
SO AM MORE APT TO BELIEVE THE WETTER SOLUTION. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO DRIFT BACK
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN SOME MODEST DRYING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH THAT IN MIND...FORECASTED PWS IN THE
0.75 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. MAXES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST LATER THAN USUAL THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED TIME OF RETURN
OF SOUTH WINDS IS AROUND 06-08Z...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT IT WILL OCCUR LATER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHILE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST BEHIND IT. STORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. FOR TOMORROW...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH...ALLOWING FOR THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AS NORTHERN UTAH REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY.
ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE TRANSPORT WINDS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND UNDER THE RIDGE...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
BACK INTO THE DISTRICT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

KRUSE/TRAPHAGAN/CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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