Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
FXUS65 KSLC 250257
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
857 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A dry cold front over Central Utah this evening will
settle into southern Utah and stall early Saturday. High pressure
aloft will rebound on Sunday, leading to another round of hot
temperatures for the first part of next week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12z Monday)...The upper trough currently over
western Montana will continue east into the northern plains on
Saturday. The associated dry surface cold front has already pushed
south into central Utah this evening, and will continue into
southern Utah where it will stall early Saturday.
The western edge of the moisture plume extending from northwest
Mexico through the central Rockies remains over the southeast
quadrant of the state this evening. Light showers/virga over
east-central Utah has formed along the frontal boundary...and
should exit to the east or dissipate during the balance of the
After a somewhat cooler and dry day Saturday, high pressure aloft
will begin to strengthen once again across the interior west
Sunday. This high will eventually center near the four corners,
with hot temperatures the result across the region heading into
early next week.
.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (After 12z Monday)...With the mean ridge
position firmly established over the UT/AZ border Monday, and
the bulk of the area existing on the northern periphery of the
anticyclonic circulation, strong subsidence will aid to drive H7
temps into the +18-19 range by the afternoon. Flow at that time
will largely be westerly and quite dry, as the moisture tap will
remain shunted south, with return flow west in Nevada. As such,
looking at dry and hot conditions areawide with temps pushing 10
to 15 degrees above climo many areas.
Aforementioned return flow will slowly moisten from the southwest
through Tuesday as the ridge axis jogs east slightly, and the
initial stages of a modest deep layer moisture surge is expected
to occur at that time. Models continue to be a tad slower
advecting this moisture into the forecast area midweek, but
continue to agree that PWAT values will climb towards an inch
Thursday through Friday, with the deepest moisture residing
across the southern half of the state.
Expect as PWAT trends increase enough to support convection
Tue/Wed the sub-cloud layer will remain quite dry owing towards
cells remaining high based with limited rainfall, gusty winds, and
potential for dry lightning. Bulk if not all of these cells should
remain tide to the terrain due to lack of steering flow beneath
the high. Thereafter however, deeper moisture coupled with a
greater potential of return flow waves passing NE through the area
should trend to support scattered convection with greater
potential of rainfall Thu/Fri.
H7 temp trends plateau Tuesday then gradually fall through day 7,
and with increased cloud cover and RH still looking for slightly
cooler temps Wed on (still above climo however).
.AVIATION...The very dry and stable post-frontal air mass across
northern Utah will maintain VFR conditions under clear skies
through the TAF period. The solid post-frontal northerly surface
gradient will maintain northerly surface winds through most of the
overnight hours. Any change to a southeast drainage winds will be
relatively short, with north winds return during around mid to
late Saturday morning.
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