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000
FXUS65 KSLC 232216
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL UTAH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO THE MID 50S
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SOME OF THE MORE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES AND BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.

THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...ROUGHLY
TO SOUTHERN SALT LAKE COUNTY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. A LARGE AND
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NEVADA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
REINFORCE THE COLD FRONT AND DRIVE IT SOUTH AGAIN THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

AFTER THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DECREASE.
LONG RANGE MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 12Z CANADIAN BRINGS
THROUGH A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH...WHILE THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST. THE 12Z EC FORMS A
NEARLY CUT- OFF LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MEXICO. GIVEN THIS WIDE
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO ERR TOWARDS A PERIOD OF ABOVE
CLIMO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES. HOPEFULLY
MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IMPROVE SHORTLY...WITH A
MORE FOCUSED SOLUTION. SOME OF THESE RUNS BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION TO UTAH...SOME JUST A PERIOD OF SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SPEED
OF THESE NORTHWESTERLIES SHOULD DROP BELOW 9 KNOTS BETWEEN 01Z AND
04Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 6 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE DRY FRONT HAS LIFTED BACK UP INTO NORTHWEST UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY WASH OUT ON FRIDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE AIRMASS WILL STAY
DRY. THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WOULD CREATE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BUT NO
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AS FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED CRITICAL. LOCAL
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR AGAIN EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY IF FUELS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS.

THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
A THREAT OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE STORMS AFTER
MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ012>016-019>021.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/WILENSKY/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)