071
FXUS64 KEWX 191744
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1244 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Early morning clouds have returned to the local area especially
along the I-35 corridor and parts of the southern Edwards Plateau.
Simulated total cloud cover HRRR product shows cloud coverage
expanding across most locations across South Central Texas for the
rest of the overnight period through mid Thursday morning.
Afterward, clouds break for partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies in
the afternoon. Highs are forecast to range from the lower to upper
90s. Upper level ridging dominates the local area and therefore dry
weather conditions for the most part. However, a mid level low
pressure system lingering across the Rio Grande in combination with
daytime heating and pwats around 2 inches could result in very
isolated shower/storm activity across the Coastal Plains and along
the I-35 corridor late afternoon and early evening. 00Z HREF shows
limited qpf across the same areas.

Clouds begin to develop and spread across South Central Texas late
evening through Friday morning. Overnight lows are forecast to range
from the lower to upper 70s. Can`t rule out patchy fog across the
Coastal Plains around dawn to about 8 am. Clouds break once again
mid to late morning to partly cloudy and mostly sunny skies in the
afternoon. Friday`s highs are forecast to range from the lower 90s
across the Hill Country to near 100 across the Austin metro area.
Dry weather continues across the local area with very limited
shower/storm activity if any develops as drier conditions are in
place with pwats in the 1.5 to 1.6 inch range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper level ridging over our area this weekend gives way to upper
level troughing next week. This allows a cold front to approach our
area late Sunday into Monday, with passage Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Most operational models and an overwhelming majority of
the ensembles show this and will favor this consensus. However it
must be noted that a few show a passage mid way through our area
Sunday night into Monday. Following the consensus, will have slight
chance POPs Sunday afternoon through Monday for the Edwards Plateau
into Val Verde County and Tuesday night into Wednesday across most
areas. Above average temperatures continue until the frontal
passage, then near to perhaps below average in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The MVFR cloud deck over DRT is dissipating from the west and they
should be VFR within the next hour. Then all terminals will be VFR
through the afternoon and evening. Southerly to southeasterly winds
will continue through the period. With no real change to the weather
pattern, we expect a repeat of low clouds overnight until late
morning Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76 100  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            75  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  98  80  97 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  97  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  97  75  94 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  97  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           78  99  78  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...05