Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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394
FXUS64 KEWX 211731
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The center of the Subtropical Ridge begins to shift to the southwest
toward Texas today. With the Ridge approaching, subsidence is still
minimal while a tropically moist airmass remains. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop with heating.
Cannot rule out a few locally heavy downpours. High temperatures
remain slightly below normal due to the clouds and increased soil
moisture. Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate with loss of
heating after sunset this evening.

The Subtropical Ridge moves nearly overhead on Saturday bringing a
subsident airmass while another tropical disturbance deepens over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. NHC shows a 60% chance of tropical
cyclone development. The resultant northeasterly flow aloft will
bring a drier airmass over most of our area. Thus, only a few
showers and thunderstorms are possible over our far southern areas
closer to the deeper moisture. Temperatures warm to near normal
under less cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The upper level ridge across the eastern U.S. is forecast to
gradually expand back west into much of Texas this weekend. To the
south of the ridge, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form
over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America today. The
National Hurricane Center is monitoring this system for tropical
cyclone development over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend. The system is expected to move northwest into Mexico late
in the weekend and into Monday. Beneath the ridge, the outer fringes
of the deeper tropical moisture associated with this system is
forecast to make into South Texas, and perhaps as far north as
southern areas of our forecast area. If this happens, isolated
tropical showers and thunderstorms could develop during the day
Sunday and Monday, mainly south of the U.S. 90 and I-10 corridor.

The upper level ridge is then forecast to build into the southwest
U.S. and amplify Tuesday through Thursday. Low and high temperatures
are forecast to increase during this time. Humid conditions are also
expected, and with the elevated dew points we will watch closely for
heat index values pushing near Heat Advisory Criteria across much of
the region Tuesday through Thursday, excluding the Hill Country. The
forecast is mostly dry during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The MVFR ceiling at AUS should lift to VFR within the next hour and
then all terminals will be VFR through the afternoon and evening.
There are isolated showers west of San Antonio and there is a chance
for one, or a thunderstorm, to move over DRT through the afternoon.
There is a smaller chance for showers in San Antonio and Austin, but
the probability is too low to include any mention in the TAFs. MVFR
ceilings will develop overnight at all of the terminals and last
until Saturday around noon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  71  94 /  20  10   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  92  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  95  77  97 /  10  10   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  93  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73  91  71  94 /  20  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  92  70  93 /  20   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  91  71  92 /  10   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  93  72  93 /  20  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           75  93  73  94 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...76
Aviation...05