Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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394 FXUS64 KEWX 211731 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The center of the Subtropical Ridge begins to shift to the southwest toward Texas today. With the Ridge approaching, subsidence is still minimal while a tropically moist airmass remains. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop with heating. Cannot rule out a few locally heavy downpours. High temperatures remain slightly below normal due to the clouds and increased soil moisture. Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate with loss of heating after sunset this evening. The Subtropical Ridge moves nearly overhead on Saturday bringing a subsident airmass while another tropical disturbance deepens over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. NHC shows a 60% chance of tropical cyclone development. The resultant northeasterly flow aloft will bring a drier airmass over most of our area. Thus, only a few showers and thunderstorms are possible over our far southern areas closer to the deeper moisture. Temperatures warm to near normal under less cloudiness. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The upper level ridge across the eastern U.S. is forecast to gradually expand back west into much of Texas this weekend. To the south of the ridge, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America today. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this system for tropical cyclone development over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The system is expected to move northwest into Mexico late in the weekend and into Monday. Beneath the ridge, the outer fringes of the deeper tropical moisture associated with this system is forecast to make into South Texas, and perhaps as far north as southern areas of our forecast area. If this happens, isolated tropical showers and thunderstorms could develop during the day Sunday and Monday, mainly south of the U.S. 90 and I-10 corridor. The upper level ridge is then forecast to build into the southwest U.S. and amplify Tuesday through Thursday. Low and high temperatures are forecast to increase during this time. Humid conditions are also expected, and with the elevated dew points we will watch closely for heat index values pushing near Heat Advisory Criteria across much of the region Tuesday through Thursday, excluding the Hill Country. The forecast is mostly dry during this time frame. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The MVFR ceiling at AUS should lift to VFR within the next hour and then all terminals will be VFR through the afternoon and evening. There are isolated showers west of San Antonio and there is a chance for one, or a thunderstorm, to move over DRT through the afternoon. There is a smaller chance for showers in San Antonio and Austin, but the probability is too low to include any mention in the TAFs. MVFR ceilings will develop overnight at all of the terminals and last until Saturday around noon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 93 71 95 / 10 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 93 71 94 / 20 10 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 73 92 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 95 77 97 / 10 10 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 93 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 91 71 94 / 20 10 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 92 70 93 / 20 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 91 71 92 / 10 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 93 72 93 / 20 10 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 75 93 73 94 / 20 10 0 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...76 Aviation...05