Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 131612 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1112 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.UPDATE...
We have updated the forecast to add a low chance (20%) for some late
afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the southern portions of
DeWitt and Lavaca counties. MCV from earlier convection will reside
across the coastal plains during peak heating hours and this may aid
in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms across
portions of DeWitt and Lavaca counties. Otherwise, look for another
hot day with highs in the lower 90s to lower 100s. We did opt to
increase temperatures slightly along the Rio Grande as a persistence
forecast seems best in the current setup.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021/

AVIATION...
IFR ceilings beginning to develop around the San Antonio sites.
Ceilings are not widespread and should be short lived. Otherwise,
light and variable winds picking up diurnal effects later this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Another day of hot and humid weather for today. Highs will be a
couple degrees warmer with max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
across the entire area. Still looking at a mostly dry forecast, but
the remains of an MCV over Houston`s area may move slightly west
southwest this afternoon. This may bring a few showers for areas
east of I-35. This is a low confidence and coverage chance, so have
kept the POPs capped at 14% for this area. The majority of the area
will remain dry and hot. With the upper ridge nudging slightly west
Monday, weakness in the northerly flow aloft could bring some
slightly better chances for afternoon showers for our eastern
counties. Otherwise another hot day for the rest of us with highs in
the mid to upper 90s and 100-102 in the Rio Grande Plains.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
The Subtropical Ridge will remain centered over the Four Corners
region while extending east to Texas through the end of the week.
Models show weak mid level impulses and surface boundaries moving
across our area from the north and east. While the airmass will
generally be subsident, these features along with solar heating may
be sufficient to generate showers and thunderstorms. Will maintain
the low chances of showers and thunderstorms primarily during the
afternoon hours and mainly along the US 77 corridor to near the
Coastal Plains for most days. The subsidence will be weaker and
moisture a little deeper in those areas. However, cannot rule out a
rogue shower or thunderstorm elsewhere.

There is some potential for tropical cyclone development over the Bay
of Campeche over the next several days with the National Hurricane
Center outlook at 2 AM EDT increasing the chances to 50 percent.
Models have lacked consistency and consensus on both intensity and
movement. Any impacts to South Central Texas are uncertain, at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  76  95  74  95 /  -    0  10  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  75  96  73  95 /  -   -   10  -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  75  96  74  96 /   0   0  10  -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            94  73  94  73  94 /  -    0  -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  76 101  77 100 /   0   0  -   -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  74  95  73  93 /  -    0  10  -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             95  73  96  74  95 /   0   0  -   -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  74  97  74  95 /   0  -   10  -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  77  96  76  95 /  -   -   20  -   20
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  76  96  75  94 /   0   0  10  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           97  76  98  77  96 /   0   0  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...05
Decision Support...KCW


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