Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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807 FXUS64 KFWD 171956 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 256 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ /Through Saturday/ We are monitoring two areas for potential isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. The first is across portions of western North Texas near the axis of an eastward-progressing mid- level trough. A couple of weak radar echoes can already be observed northwest of Throckmorton, TX. The second location is north of I-20 primarily near/along the Red River where surface low pressure in south-central Oklahoma is leading to a dense cumulus field. With subtle ascent from these features and some help from daytime heating, a lack of focusable surface boundaries will keep storm coverage rather isolated (15-25% chance north of I-20). It is entirely possible that much of this afternoon`s activity remains north of the Red River in Oklahoma, but recent CAM guidance does highlight the potential for a storm or two in our forecast area. Although we will have ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the areas of interest this afternoon, only 20-25 kts of 0-6km shear should keep the severe threat on the lower end. However, we cannot rule out some hail or gusty winds IF a thunderstorm develops. Again, it is uncertain if we will have enough lift for a parcel to achieve its LFC here in our forecast area. Decaying showers and thunderstorms over the Hill Country may make a run for our far southwestern zones later this evening/early overnight (10% chance), however it is much more likely they dissipate before reaching our forecast area. As we move into the overnight, expect clearing skies with temperatures lowering into the low to mid-60s by early Saturday morning. There is potential for some patchy fog across our eastern-southeastern zones early Saturday morning as well. Ridging aloft will begin to develop overhead Saturday beginning a much- needed several day reprieve from rain chances. South-southwesterly low-level flow and plentiful sunshine will allow for temperatures to peak in the mid-80s to low 90s Saturday afternoon. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday Night Onward/ A mid level ridge will create above-normal temperatures across the board late weekend through early next week. Increasing southerly low level flow will simultaneously increase dewpoints by drawing Gulf moisture northward through the region. A hot and humid stretch can hence be expected for the first half of the week, with Tuesday likely being the most oppressive as heat indices peak around 100 in the afternoon. Despite the heat, the ridge will begin to weaken on Tuesday as a pair shortwaves traverse the Plains. The first will send a weak cold front southward to near the Red River on Tuesday, likely bolstering the afternoon heat due to compressional warming south of the front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, but most of this activity will remain north of the Red River. The second shortwave will push the front farther south into the forecast area on Wednesday. The front will provide focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some storms may end up being severe based on the 40+ kt of deep layer shear and good instability being advertised by model guidance over the past few days. Another round of convection appears likely on Thursday as a third shortwave passes through the Southern Plains, with a few storms again possibly being strong to severe. The presence of the surface boundary may also lead to training storms and localized flooding. With all that said, it is still too soon to delve into the specifics regarding timing and intensity, but we will gather more details as higher resolution guidance is received over the next few days. The ridge will restrengthen next Friday, returning the region to warm and humid weather to end the week. A slight chance of storms may return next weekend as mid range guidance hints at some possible dryline activity during the final week of May. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all TAF sites. FEW to SCT 025-030 cigs will likely persist through this afternoon. Expect light west-northwesterly winds through this afternoon shifting south-southwest later this evening, becoming variable at times during the overnight. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of North Texas this afternoon, however the bulk of this activity is expected to remain near the Red River and north of the D10 sites. Patchy fog will be possible across portions of east and southeast TX early Saturday morning, but should largely remain displaced from KACT and the D10 sites. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 92 71 91 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 Waco 66 88 69 88 69 / 5 0 0 0 0 Paris 63 87 66 88 69 / 20 5 0 0 0 Denton 63 91 68 91 71 / 5 0 0 0 0 McKinney 64 89 68 90 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 67 92 70 91 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 Terrell 64 88 68 88 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 67 90 70 90 71 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 64 89 68 88 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 63 91 68 91 71 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$