Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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136 FXUS64 KFWD 082242 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 542 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight Through Sunday/ Another sunny and hot summer day is in the books with afternoon temperatures in the middle/upper 90s and heat index values around 100 for several locations. The only thing that made the heat a bit more tolerable was a breezy south wind. Wind speeds and temperatures will gradually fall after sunset, reaching the lower to middle 70s by sunrise. The center of the upper ridge responsible for the sunny and hot weather will shift slowly southeast on Sunday while an upper trough swings across the Great Lakes and Midwest. The passage of the trough axis will send a weak cold front southward through Oklahoma, reaching near the Red River around sunset. The front will be a focus for afternoon storms, but these should dissipate with the loss of heating. We will also see storms form on the dryline across West Texas Sunday afternoon, but they will also have a very low chance of reaching the forecast area due to weak mid-level winds. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/ /Sunday Night Through Next Weekend/ We`ll be watching two distinct areas of convection Sunday afternoon, one associated with a West Texas dryline and the other with a late-season cold front in Oklahoma. The West Texas activity will separate from the dryline, encouraged to move into the deeper moisture to the east, but generally weak steering flow will make this a slow process. The frontal convection to our north should steadily become outflow-dominant, weakening or diminishing entirely during the evening hours. Both of these areas will be largely driven by daytime heating, and with little upper support and no nocturnal low-level jet, neither should thrive Sunday night. Low PoPs will address the potential for either/both areas to enter the region during the overnight hours. The 3-km NAM is bullish on renewed convection along the frontal/outflow boundary early Monday morning, but with little to support this, other available CAM guidance is more appropriately quiet. Weak shear should focus the convective mode toward rather disorganized multi- cell clusters that at worst could contain small hail and gusty winds. As is typical for this time of year, guidance has poor handle on the evolution of the surface boundary. Despite the uncertainty in its position on Monday, it should still remain in the vicinity, serving as a focus for convective initiation during the afternoon hours. Sunday`s activity across West Texas will have disrupted the mid-level flow, and this weakness will be drifting over North and Central Texas at peak heating Monday afternoon. While this may encourage additional showers and storms to develop (not associated with the surface boundary), these convective elements will also suffer from weak shear. But with adequate instability, the stronger cells could still result in small hail and gusty winds. A more potent shortwave will dive into North Texas on Tuesday when another round of showers and storms may result. Seasonally warm temperatures and rich boundary layer moisture will maintain the instability, and the disturbance aloft will introduce an uptick in shear. But with weak boundary layer flow and the lack of any surface focus, any convection would likely remain disorganized Tuesday afternoon. However, the GFS wants to surge an MCS through the region. The ECMWF delays this potential until Wednesday. After the rain/cloud-diminished temperatures during the first half of the upcoming workweek, ridging will nose back into the Lone Star State, pushing daytime temperatures back above normal late in the week. Next weekend looks like a repeat of this weekend, seasonal early summer temperatures with elevated humidity. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Only some passing high clouds are expected through tonight across the entire region. A 40 knot low level jet will send some stratus northward from the Texas Hill Country overnight, briefly reaching Central Texas, including Waco, around or just after sunrise. All ceilings will quickly lift and scatter with the onset of vigorous boundary layer mixing. It is possible that a few low clouds will reach D10 Sunday morning, but no low ceilings are expected. A south wind will continue in the 8 to 13 knot range. Occasional gusts around 20 knots are likely, especially through sunset and late this evening/overnight. No storms are expected at the TAF sites through Sunday but a few storms may approach the Bowie and Bonham corner posts late in the afternoon. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 93 74 88 72 / 0 0 10 30 20 Waco 73 91 74 89 72 / 0 0 5 20 20 Paris 72 91 70 84 67 / 0 10 10 20 10 Denton 72 93 70 86 70 / 0 5 10 30 20 McKinney 72 92 71 86 70 / 0 0 10 30 20 Dallas 73 94 74 88 72 / 0 0 5 30 20 Terrell 71 91 71 87 69 / 0 0 5 20 20 Corsicana 73 92 74 89 73 / 0 0 5 20 20 Temple 72 93 72 91 72 / 0 0 5 20 10 Mineral Wells 72 95 71 88 71 / 0 5 10 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$